The Green Bay Packers drafted Jordy Nelson in 2008, adding what would become one of the most prolific receivers in team history. So it’s a little weird seeing him wearing new colors after 10 seasons in Wisconsin.
Pen to paper. 🔏
The Raiders have signed WR @JordyRNelson: https://t.co/n9kohr0xHr pic.twitter.com/PQcagycClV
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) March 15, 2018
The Oakland Raiders signed Nelson to replace Michael Crabtree, who was released. Nelson is coming off a rough season and is, in all likelihood, entering a worse situation. Luckily, he does have enough going for him to keep him on fantasy radars for at least another season.
Reasons to Get Excited
Touchdowns
Nelson’s ability to get into the end zone has long been his calling card. Only one receiver (Dez Bryant) has more touchdowns than Nelson since 2011. That’s especially impressive considering he missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL. He had six touchdowns in five games in 2017 before Aaron Rodgers’ injury.
.@RAIDERS @JordyRNelson “NEWSFLASH” Jordy can still play and can still get behind defenses . He needs an elite QB to find him. @RAIDERS got better today. #BaldyBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/QVbrk5OXJA
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) March 16, 2018
Crabtree was often the touchdown-scorer in Oakland, making Nelson a natural replacement. Nelson should step in as a prime target in the red zone, where he has excelled in the past.
Most Red Zone Receiving TDs by a WR Since 2011:
39 – Dez Bryant
39 – Brandon Marshall
38 – Jordy Nelson
37 – Eric Decker
33 – A.J. Green
— Evert Geerlings (@E_Geerlings) March 16, 2018
Age
But wait, shouldn’t this count as a negative? Nelson will turn 33 in May and just had one of the worst seasons of his career. But it’s not that uncommon for receivers to excel at 33 and beyond. Since 1980, receivers 33 or older have put up over a thousand yards 54 times. They’ve scored six or more touchdowns 56 times.
That includes the following players who did one or both for a team coached or coordinated by new Raiders head coach Jon Gruden: Irving Fryar (1996-1997), Tim Brown (1999-2001), Jerry Rice (2001), Keenan McCardell (2003), and Joey Galloway (2005-2007). Plus, Nelson is more of a route runner than a pure athlete. He may have more longevity than most.
Bad Luck
Just about everything went wrong for the Packers in 2017. Nelson’s numbers were subpar, but he was on his way to yet another dominant scoring season. The case could be made that his scoring pace was unsustainable, and there’s some truth to that. But considering he had the second-most receiving touchdowns in the last seven years despite missing a season, it’s fair to give him the benefit of the doubt. We didn’t see enough last season to completely write him off.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Horrendous 2017
But still, the numbers were really, really bad. Nelson picked up a grand total of 252 yards with no touchdowns in 10 games after Rodgers went down. If not for his name value, he would have been dropped in every league. If this is what we can expect without Rodgers throwing him the ball, Nelson’s owners are in trouble.
Quarterback Downgrade
While Derek Carr isn’t horrendous by any means, he’s no Rodgers. That’s not a knock, since few people are. The problem is one of the biggest reasons why the Rodgers-Nelson combination was able to flourish was because of their excellent chemistry. They were perfectly in sync with one another, which was likely the biggest factor in all of the touchdowns they scored together. Carr won’t be able to do that overnight, if ever.
Gruden’s Receiver History
As mentioned, Jon Gruden has a long history of succeeding with older receivers. He also has a more troubling trend. In seven years in Tampa, he never had more than one fantasy-relevant receiver. Just look at the numbers for each of Gruden’s top two receivers from 2002 to 2008.
Not a pretty sight, is it? If only one receiver is going to be fantasy-relevant in Oakland, it’s likely to be Amari Cooper.
Conclusion
Moving on from Aaron Rodgers makes relying on Nelson especially risky. The Raiders obviously see something in him, or they wouldn’t have made the switch from Crabtree. It’s just not feasible to think Nelson can replicate his Green Bay numbers with Carr. He’s certainly worth a shot as a WR3, but anything more than that is a stay-away.
