If you made a bet that Josh Allen would get the Week 1 start for the Buffalo Bills at -250, you’re likely kicking yourself right now. The team officially announced on Monday that Nathan Peterman will be making the opening day first appearance under center. If you bet Peterman, like I told you to consider, you’re sitting pretty with a +820 payoff. For the rest of you, there’s still money to be made on the over/under on Josh Allen starts in 2018.
Here are the current odds for Allen’s total starts from BetDSI.
Over 8.5 (-115)
Under 8.5 (-115)
Now, 8.5 games is a lot, but I’m rolling in here trying to convince you to take the over. If you’ll recall, Peterman started two games last year and the first was historic. The rookie quarterback out of Pittsburgh tossed five interceptions in his first start, tying an NFL record set in 2009 by St. Louis Rams rookie quarterback Keith Null.
Null ended up starting the final four games of that season for the Rams after starter Marc Bulger was hurt and backup Kyle Boller was, well, Kyle Boller. He completed 61.3 percent of his passes for 566 yards, three touchdowns and nine interceptions. The fact that four of those picks came over his final three games at least showed progress, I guess. That is the kind of rarefied air Peterman is playing in.
To be fair, Peterman has been solid this offseason. Against the Carolina Panthers, he was 9-of-10 for 119 yards and a touchdown, but still threw a pick. Interceptions are what he’s going to be known for at this point. It is his oeuvre. He works in it like other artists work in clay, oils or marble.
”I believe he (Peterman) is a resilient young man,” Bills head coach Sean McDermott told the media. “He’s certainly come through some times of adversity throughout his career. Usually, if you go through some adversity early in life, you’re that much more prepared for it when it comes around later.”
So Peterman is definitely getting the start at the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. What does that mean for Allen’s over/under? Probably nothing.
If the Ravens defense eats Peterman alive, and I expect them to, then we’ll see Allen stride into the game sometime in the third quarter and play it out. That means he’ll start next week and likely the rest of the season, barring injury.
Allen looked good in the preseason, better than I thought he would considering he never completed 60 percent of his passes in college. He was 24-of-44 for 210 yards and two touchdowns in three games. He’s obviously not ready, but that doesn’t mean McDermott won’t toss him in there after Peterman’s fourth interception or sixth straight three-and-out.
As usual with decisions like this, there’s a ripple effect. First off, the Bills’ win total before this was an outrageous over/under of six. That was already ridiculous and I told you to bet the under back in the summer. I can’t stress it enough now.
Second, the Ravens were a -7 favorite before this became official. That likely won’t change, but don’t be afraid to take Baltimore here and feel good about it. They certainly do. I’d stay away from the over/under, though, of 40.5. It could easily be a 27-6 game.
