In the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl, the South Florida Bulls are underdogs against the Marshall Thundering Herd. Fans are able to catch the action live on ESPN and this Thursday matchup is scheduled to kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
In this Thursday matchup, Marshall is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Thundering Herd are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Bulls are +120. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points, and should one squad catches a lucky break early on, it will probably generate a nice live betting opportunity.
This game’s line opened at 2. The total hasn’t changed since it opened at 54.5.
The Thundering Herd are 4-8 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 1.1 units so far. The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 8-4. The Bulls are down 0.8 units this season. The team is 4-8 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6.
The Thundering Herd have gone 8-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bulls are 7-5 SU.
The Thundering Herd fell to Virginia Tech 41-20 in a blowout where their defense allowed the Hokies to pass for 312 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 142 yards. On the offense, Isaiah Green completed just 19 passes on 34 attempts for 220 yards, as well as a score and a pick. Brenden Knox (204 yards on 27 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground attack. Armani Levias (five receptions, 69 yards) and Obi Obialo (four catches, 37 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
South Florida just dropped a brutal 38-10 game to UCF. As a group, the team collectively completed 15-of-29 passes for 113 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Brett Kean went eight-for-17 for 36 yards while Chris Oladokun was seven-of-12 for 77 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Johnny Ford (120 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Jordan Cronkrite (30 yards on 10 carries) handled the running game while Mitchell Wilcox (five receptions, 38 yards) and Stanley Clerveaux (three catches, 10 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Marshall’s run the ball on 51.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Florida has a rush percentage of 54.5 percent. The Thundering Herd have produced 156 rush yards per game and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bulls are logging 202 rushing yards per game and have 26 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Thundering Herd should own the edge when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has allowed only 11 sacks while their D-line logged 32 sacks. The Bulls, on the other hand, have given up 18 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 36 times.
The Thundering Herd offensive scheme has tallied 229 yards per game through the air overall and has 20 passing scores so far. The Bulls have put up 242 pass yards per contest and have 15 total pass TDs.
Marshall has let opponents rush for an average of 104 yards and pass for 232 yards per game. The South Florida defense has allowed 197.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 244.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Thundering Herd are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.93 to opposing QBs, while the Bulls have given up a 5.47 ANY/A.
Offensively, Green is up to 2,062 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 55 percent of his 278 attempts with 13 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He’s got a 6.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.05 over the last two outings.
We’re looking for Thundering Herd to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Armani Levias (289 yards, three TDs), Brenden Knox (376 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Anthony Anderson (231 rush yards, eight rush TDs, 14 receiving yards) have delivered in the Marshall offensive scheme.
Blake Barnett has completed 203-of-327 passes for 2,498 yards, 11 TDs and 11 INTs for South Florida. His ANY/A sits at 5.97 for the season and -0.80 across his last two games.
The Bulls also prefer to keep their RBs featured. Johnny Ford (679 rush yards, eight rush TDs, 78 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Jordan Cronkrite (1,012 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Duran Bell Jr. (115 rush yards, one rush TD) have gotten a multitude of touches lately.
Betting Pick: Marshall Thundering Herd at South Florida Bulls
SU Winner – South Florida, ATS Winner – South Florida, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Marshall defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 39 times this season. South Florida has produced just 29 sacks.
The South Florida offense has lost nine fumbles this season while the Marshall offense has lost 11.
The Thundering Herd offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulls have put up 11 such plays.
The Marshall defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while South Florida has given up seven such plays.
The Marshall offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while South Florida has created 22 such runs.
The Thundering Herd defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulls have given up 32 such runs.
As a team, Marshall has produced 4.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.8 over its last two.
South Florida has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.0 over its past two.
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