The AAC Conference puts two of its best teams together for some Saturday night football action when the Memphis Tigers play the Central Florida Knights. The game is scheduled to begin on Saturday, September 30th at 7:00 p.m. EST. It can be watched on the ESPN2 Network for your viewing pleasure. Heading into this inevitable offensive shoot-out, Las Vegas has the Knights as -4 point favorites. They also have the contest’s over/under at 69 which is down from the original 71 that was posted at the beginning of the week.
The Memphis Tigers are heading into this conference game off a 44-31 win over the FCS’s Southern Illinois. In the contest against weaker competition, the Tigers defense finally showed some signs of life in the second half. After giving up 21 points to the Salukis in the first, they limited them to only 10 points in the second and held them to under 350 total yards on the day.
The Central Florida Knights are fresh off a victory over the BIG-10’s Maryland Terrapins. Head coach Scott Frost seems to have got this program focused and going in the right direction thus far this year. Once again, the Knights offense was productive putting up 38 points on the Terps. Maryland was featuring a third-string quarterback but still only managed 10 points on the day.
Memphis Tigers (3-0)
The offense is certainly not the concern for the Memphis Tigers in 2017. The Tigers are ranked 14th in the country, scoring 43 points per game. Surprisingly, they are extremely balanced. Memphis put up 261 yards of offense per game through the air and 219 more on the ground.
Leading the air attack is senior quarterback Riley Ferguson. Last year, the stellar ball tosser was spectacular, throwing for nearly 3,700 yards with 32 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Once again, Fergusen is off to a good start. So far, he has completed 55 passes for 783 yards with eight endzone tosses and two picks.
When I think of the Memphis offense, I assume that most of the damage done to opposing defenses is done through the air. Realistically, that is just not the case. Running backs Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor II is more than productive out of the backfield for the Tigers.
Together, the two have accumulated almost 600 yards on the ground and five scores. Henderson has been a beast, rushing for almost 350 yards with gaudy 9.1 yards per carry with three trips to the promised land.
Memphis also boasts one of the best wide receivers in Division I football. Wideout Anthony Miller has been Riley Ferguson’s big-play guy, catching 17 passes for 255 yards and three scores. On the other side, teammate Joe Magnifico also does his part to keep the offense matriculating down the field. In 2017, he has 10 catches for 131 yards and two touchdowns.
The Memphis Tigers will clearly need their defense to play better in this game as the Knights are one of the best offensive teams in the nation. Although they did show some improvement last week, it was against much lesser competition than they will be facing on the road in this one. Overall, Memphis ranks 108th in the country allowing 35 points per game.
Central Florida Knights (2-0)
In just their second contest of the season, thanks to Hurricane Irma, the Central Florida Knights seem to be running on all cylinders. First, they opened their season with a 61 point outburst against Florida International. Then after two weeks off, showed no signs of rust as they went into Maryland and put up another 38.
Sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton has played lights out in the first two games of the season. The multi-talented signal-caller has passed for 538 yards with five touchdowns and only one pick. The Hawaii native also has scrambled for a team-high 98 yards on nine carries.
The Knights running game hasn’t been a one-man effort. Four tailbacks split carries along with quarterback McKenzie Milton. Combined, they have rushed for an average of 203 yards per game. That stat is good enough to place the unit at 43rd in the country. Taj McGowan is their number one threat in the red zone, tallying three touchdowns but four other backs have also reached pay-dirt.
Like in the running department, Central Florida uses a plethora of receivers to help move the chains on Saturday. In fact, three receivers have already gone over the century mark and five others have caught at least three passes. Keep in mind, the Knights have only taken to the grid-iron twice this season.
Defensively, Central Florida looked pretty good against the Maryland Terrapins last weekend. Keep in mind, the Terps were playing with their third-string quarterback. Nevertheless, the Knights held them to only 197 total yards and only 10 points. In all, the Knights rank 14th in the country, allowing only 266 yards per game. They also are eighth in the nation against the run, giving up 88 yards per contest.
Prediction
This AAC Conference match-up has all the makings of a shoot-out and I see why. Both of these offenses can put up points in a big way and can score from anywhere on the field. Also, both schools field extremely balanced offenses, which keep opposing defenses guessing. I fully expect that that will be the case once again Saturday evening.
Las Vegas came out with this over/under at 69 and now the public has pushed the total to 71. Personally, I couldn’t agree more with the money that is coming in on this over. I think it is totally reasonable to expect both of these offenses to find plenty of ways to score on each other’s defenses. Just take this over 71 and enjoy a shoot-out.
Line-setters also have the Central Florida Knights as a four-point favorite. For me, this seems like the riskier proposition. I think that head coach Scott Frost does have the program heading in the right direction. Unfortunately, two games are just not enough for me to judge whether the Knights are the real deal. #moneytreesgrow
Trends
The Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their seven road games.
The Over is 5-0 in the Tigers last five games overall.
The Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
The Knights are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The Under 8-1 in the Knights last nine home games.
The Home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these schools.
