The Minnesota Timberwolves hope to have built a roster able of contending but have traditionally been one of the worst franchises in the history of the league. They open up the new season with a trip to one of the most successful in the last three decades, the San Antonio Spurs – whom they have not beaten once in three seasons.
Timberwolves at Spurs
Spread: San Antonio -1 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: over 205.5 (-110)
Tough test for the Wolves right away
The Wolves have been a trendy under-the-radar pick last year, so having missed the playoffs by a considerable margin can only be graded as a poor season. Thibodeau’s first season hasn’t brought any improvement on the defensive end, and despite the tremendous talent few players undoubtedly have, the Wolves couldn’t animate the home crowd and lost too many games at home. This proved to be costly in the standings, but also served as a good reminder that you can’t put in half-effort and succeed in the West.
Having the dual powers in the organization, Thibodeau has now revamped last year’s roster to his liking, bringing in his scholars Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, as well as replacing Ricky Rubio with Jeff Teague. The biggest Achilles’ heel hasn’t been addressed, and lack of depth remains, but the first unit will have some say in the standings. There are also compatibility issues with all the backcourt players being primarily guys that like to operate in the paint. Still, the ex-Bulls are going to improve Wolves bad defense to at least respectable level (not the same with the Teague-Rubio swap, but it has other benefits).
The Wolves are only eight players deep (with Bjelica, veteran Jamal Crawford and Gorgui Dieng significant off the bench), so it’s great news that they have no medical issues for this game. They’ll be extra motivated to put in the good showing, as they play Utah and OKC next, so there’s no time to ease into the season. They posted the tenth-best offensive numbers last season (when adjusted to pace), but have been better than just three other teams when it came down to protecting their own rim. If they can keep with solid offense, improving the defense to the middle of the pack would likely place them right in the mix for the lower spots in the West.
Place: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Date/Time: Wednesday, October 18th, 2017. 9:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN
Leonard’s injury looming over the Spurs
The Spurs are not going to be intimidated by the names the Wolves are going to show. This team thrives of beating opponents who think having a good rep is all it takes. It’s the next man up the philosophy that has helped this franchise overcome all-time great Tim Duncan’s retirement to win 60+ wins and get to the Conference Finals. Again. Play top-3 defense. Again. Have an MVP candidate in an era of man-teams, and one that should have probably won it.
Now, the Spurs come into this season having failed to accomplish any of their ideal scenarios in the free agency and beyond. Despite being the original team to court Paul, they failed to land him. Later, they tried to offload LaMarcus Aldridge, but couldn’t get a decent return. They’ve let Simmons and Dedmon, two athletic (if not young) players sign elsewhere, bringing back dinosaur center Gasol and signing one of the worst advanced-stats players in recent memory, Rudy Gay, who is coming back from the Achilles tear. There’s a popular mantra that nobody should question the Spurs, and I’m not. There’s no need to question their moves, each one is plain bad.
The good news is that Aldridge came to understanding with Pop and worked hard over the summer to be more of a focal point in the Spurs offense. He even added a three-point shot to his already impressive perimeter repertoire. It will also help the Spurs during the time their star Kawhi Leonard recovers from a nagging muscle injury, one that will keep him from playing against the Wolves as well. Parker will also miss the game and time beyond the current month but could return as soon as in December, beating the recovery schedule despite his age.
DeJounte Murray and Kyle Anderson are the replacement starters, but both had minor injury woes as well, so we’re looking at a probable timeshare with Mills and Gay/Bertans. Green, Aldridge, and Gasol, all of whom had an underwhelming season compared to the previous years, complete the starting unit. Popovich will likely deploy 10 or 11 players at the minimum, so you’ll get a good look at all the Spurs have.
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs Game Trends & Prediction
The Minnesota Timberwolves have had a season of two tales when it came to backing them against the spread. They weren’t all that kind to their backers, going 37-44-1 overall. The teams that fail to meet the public expectations usually tend to lose your money. However, they started last season 7-16 ATS and finished it with 5-12-1 ATS record, having a decent success in between. They’ll look to be more consistent this time. Mostly due to playing poor defense (and worse than what one would expect from a team playing two bigs, led by defensive-oriented head coach), the Wolves finished the last season with 44 overs and 38 unders. This record could be repeated again, as there’s a decent possibility that the market overreacts to their offseason additions.
The Spurs have gone 41-39-2 against the spread overall, and 43-37-2 against the over/under lines. They’ve combined a patient, methodic passing to open shots with always a solid defense to thwart the up-tempo teams, but was also merciless against the matador defenses like the Wolves played. In eleven total games Kawhi Leonard missed (regular season and playoffs), the Spurs have gone 6-5 ATS and 7-4 O/U. It would be fair to mention that 4 of these games were against the Warriors.
This year, I decided to go even more transparent about my bets and will show you the real-time ranking for all the teams showcased here at you favorite betting place, through a unique ranking system – AdmiRank. This system helps you understand how good NBA teams are on a scale to 100. As you can see, the Spurs hold a significant edge over the Wolves, but mind that these numbers don’t account for short-term injuries, so there isn’t that much between the two sans Leonard.
If you’d just look at the starting lineups, you’d waste no time to jump on the away team. This is a normal reaction, and each time you feel that way, you should guard yourself against the positive bias. The numbers tell a much different story, but the math doesn’t help us much as the Spurs are not going to play their best players, while the Wolves arguably have a better team than a year ago.
The odds setters have surely been in the same kind of dilemma, except they had to guard against the flow of wagers on the away dog, so they are teasing us with a -1 spread on the Spurs, which is good enough for a value to take. I don’t blame you if you aren’t feeling this bet, but this is a time when you should ignore your bias and trust the Spurs. The total points are set right on the mark, so there’s no wager here.
My Pick: San Antonio -1 (-110)
Total: no bet at total points here
