After a day of sorting out division winners and wild cards, now we move into the actual postseason. In the National League, the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies fell short on Monday, which means they’re left to duel it out in the Wild Card game. Let’s take a closer look at that matchup.
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies had been one of the hottest teams in baseball to end the year. They had won eight straight following Friday’s win over the Washington Nationals. However, they lost on Saturday and lost on Monday, so one might say they’ve cooled off a bit. They’ll turn to their ace, Kyle Freeland, on Tuesday in hopes of getting momentum back on their side and earning a win to get them into the NLDS.
Freeland was one of the best bets this season as he not only finished the year 17-7, but the Rockies have won 15 of his last 17 starts. He set a franchise record for ERA (2.85) but he’s been even better in the last two months, posting a 2.61 ERA in September and a 2.15 mark in August.
If there is a concern with Freeland, it’s that he clearly pitches better at home than away. He’s 10-2 at home with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. On the road, he’s 7-5 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The 25-year-old has faced the Cubs just once, going seven innings while giving up six hits and just one walk at Wrigley Field back on April 30th. The Cubs won that game 3-2. A similar effort would put the Rockies in good position for a win.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will hand the ball to Jon Lester. The combination of Lester and October is typically a good one. He has a career 2.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in the postseason, which is quite incredible.
He’s had a few bumps in the road this season, though, posting an ERA of 6.46 in July and 5.81 in August before settling down in September. He’s allowed just nine earned runs in his last 47.1 innings of work, which is fantastic. The Cubs have won seven of his last eight starts.
He beat Freeland in that April 30th matchup, although he only pitched 5.2 innings that day. He allowed five hits and three walks, but didn’t allow a single run.
The main concern if you’re betting the Cubs is how they finished the season. This is a team that was 78-53 on August 28th but was merely 17-15 the rest of the way. It’ll be on Lester to help change that momentum.
Pick
The Rockies should put forth a strong effort in this one but the Cubs will be the team that moves ahead. The Rockies were 33-27 against lefties this season and now they have to face one of the best left-handed postseason starters around.
Overall, the Cubs are a strong home team at 51-31. No other National League team had more home wins. They’re also 11-5 this season when at home as a favorite of -125 to -175.
Although they didn’t finish the year as strongly as the Rockies, the fact that they have experience, home-field advantage and the savvy Lester on their side leads me to take a shot with them at -130.
Pick: Cubs -130
