The smart money is on Russell Westbrook to lead the NBA in assists, but the payoff is puny. You have to wager $100 to win $120, and you have to wait until mid-April for that payday.
You’d be better off with Bitcoin futures — which is saying something.
But here is the thing when it comes to looking at prop bets for the upcoming NBA season, especially when it comes to assists — folks always have to expect the unexpected, and that is a good notion to keep in mind if wagering that someone other than the NBA’s most prolific triple-double machine since Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson endures some sort of misfortune that knocks him out of contention.
Just ask Gordon Hayward or DeMarcus Cousins or Kristaps Porzingis.
One misstep; one misplaced foot; one wrong step … and you know how that sentence ends.
So with that in mind, let’s have a look at the prop bets that have been posted on BetDSI.com for the upcoming season.
Today, the subject is those who would rather pass than shoot (yes, I know, that does not necessarily apply to the aforementioned fashion icon from the OKC.)
But let’s start with him:
Russell Westbrook, +120: He averaged a triple-double for the second consecutive season, despite having to pass the ball to Carmelo Anthony. And now that the Thunder have pulled off an addition-by-subtraction move by shedding Anthony (while adding Dennis Schroeder), the only place Westbrook’s assist total should be expected to go is north. John Stockton holds the NBA record for average assists in a game, 14.5. Westbrook has been at 10.4, 10.4 and 10.3 the past three seasons.
John Wall, +180: Wall did not qualify among league leaders last season because he played only 41 games, but he averaged 9.8 dimes, and his assists-per-48 minutes average was 13.4 to Westbrook’s 13.5. This season, he will have Dwight Howard instead of John Wall finishing at the rim, and Dwight can still convert an alley-oop. Not a bad bet, but not a big payoff.
James Harden, +550. The reigning NBA scoring champ never met a shot he didn’t like or a double-team he didn’t think he could beat, so he is not exactly the first player who comes to mind when it comes to assists — especially playing alongside Chris Paul. Yet he averaged 8.8 per game last season, fourth in the league (including Wall). Hard to see him going any higher, which probably makes him a bad bet.
Ben Simmons, +750: Two of the shooters who he could drive and dish to at the end of last season (Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova) are gone, and opposing defenses will be doing exactly what Boston did last postseason — playing off him. Sometimes that works and sometimes it doesn’t, depending on the second line of defense. He averaged 8.2 assists last season, and he got better as the season progressed. This is a decent wager.
LeBron James, 15-1. He is coming off two seasons in which he had carer-highs in assists: 8.7 two seasons ago, and 9.1 last season with a cast of castoffs. But he is now on a Lakers team that has two natural point guards in Rajon Rondo and Lonzo Ball. That means more time for LeBron off the ball, and probably fewer assists. Bad bet.
Chris Paul, 20-1. Long odds not tough to figure given how ball-dominant of a player James Harden is, and Paul had double-figure assist games only 15 times last season while averaging 7.9 dimes. Still a great point guard, but not playing in a system that optimizes his skills.
Jrue Holiday, 30-1. This is a very interesting wagering opportunity. Holiday no longer shares the court with Rajon Rondo, and he is on a team that lost DeMarcus Cousins and is going to be getting something like 35 shots per night out of Anthony Davis. Holiday averaged 6.3 assists in 38.7 minutes per game during the postseason, and that was with Rondo averaging 12.2 assists. Worth a flyer at those odds.
Rajon Rondo, 30-1. On a one-year deal with the Lakers, once again trying to reestablish the value that should have made him a max player long ago (attitude counts for a lot). He had eight games last season with at least 15 assists, including games with 25 and 21. Rondo can’t be counted on night-to-night to produce huge assist lines, but definitely a wild card who could pull this off — if Westbrook gets hurt.
Jeff Teague, Draymond Green, Kyle Lowry, 50-1. Only Lowry is worth a flyer. New Raptors coach Nick Nurse will not be going 11 deep as Duane Casey did.
Ricky Rubio, Steph Curry, 65-1. Save your money.
Damian Lillard, Nikola Jokic, 80-1. Save your money. And in Jokic’s case, save it for league leader in triple-doubles prop.
Dennis Smith Jr., Lonzo Ball, 100-1. “Dumbest idea I’ve ever heard of,” LaVar Ball said of this wager on Smith. OK, that’s a joke. But he said that same line regarding the idea of the Lakers adding James.
Smith Jr. at 100-1 is worth a $10 flyer.
