The Houston Cougars are coming into the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl as underdogs against the No. 22 Army West Point Black Knights. Kickoff for this crucial showdown is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN.
Houston Cougars vs. Army West Point Black Knights Betting Preview
In this Saturday game, Army West Point has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Cougars are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Black Knights are -175. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points, and should one school can get out in front early, it would likely result in a worthy betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s over/under was initially placed at 67.5, but the sharp action has pushed that number downward.
The Cougars are 6-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.9 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 8-4. The surprising Black Knights have gained 9.2 units this season. They’re 6-4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-5.
The Cougars have gone 8-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Black Knights are 10-2 SU.
The Cougars are reeling from a 52-31 defeat to Memphis on November 23. The Cougars defense allowed the Tigers to eat up the clock by rushing for 401 yards on 59 attempts, including six rush TDs. On the offense, Clayton Tune completed only 18-of-43 passes for 256 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Marquez Stevenson (six receptions, 55 yards) and Raelon Singleton (four catches, 67 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Army West Point is coming off of a 17-10 win over Navy. Kelvin Hopkins Jr. completed four-of-nine passes for 61 yards. Hopkins Jr. (64 yards on 18 rush attempts, two TDs) and Darnell Woolfolk (62 yards on 16 carries) handled the running game as Kell Walker (two receptions, 30 yards) and Glen Coates (one catch, 17 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Houston has run the ball on 52.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Army West Point has a rush percentage of 89.1 percent. The Cougars have produced 228 rush yards per game and have 28 scores on the ground this year. The Black Knights are averaging 296 rush yards per game and have 39 total rushing TDs.
The Cougars offensive scheme has tallied 301 yards per game in the air overall and has 44 passing TDs so far. The Black Knights have recorded 80 pass yards per outing and have six total pass scores.
Houston has allowed opponents to run for an average of 197 yards and pass for 291 yards per game. The Army West Point defense has given up 185.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 108.2 yards per game on the ground. The Cougars are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.30 to opponents, while the Black Knights have given up a 7.11 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Tune is up to 457 yards this season. He’s completed 32-of-70 attempts with five scores through the air and only one interception. Tune has a 6.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.19 over the last two outings.
We expect the Houston offense to mix it up in this one. Patrick Carr, Romello Brooker and Marquez Stevenson have combined for 407 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. has completed 46-of-84 passes for 931 yards, six TDs and three INTs for Army West Point. His ANY/A sits at 10.26 for the year and 4.88 over his last two games.
We’re expecting the Black Knights to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (zero receiving yards this season), Darnell Woolfolk (796 rush yards, 11 rush TDs) and Kell Walker (288 rush yards, 162 receiving yards, one TD) have been key factors in the Army West Point offense.
NCAA Betting Pick: Houston Cougars at Army West Point Black Knights
SU Winner – Houston, ATS Winner – Houston, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Houston defensive unit has 23 sacks on the year while Army West Point has just 16.
Army West Point has lost four fumbles this season while Houston has lost eight.
The Cougars offense has tallied 16 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Black Knights have accounted for four such plays.
The Houston defense has allowed 13 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Army West Point has given up five such plays.
The Houston offense has created 28 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Army West Point has created 21 such runs.
The Cougars defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Black Knights have given up eight such runs.
Army West Point has won 11 of its last 12 games SU, with a -7-point defeat to Oklahoma on September 22nd accounting for its one loss over that stretch.
As a team, Houston has averaged 4.8 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.
Army West Point has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its past two.
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