The Dallas Stars and the Seattle Kraken are set to face off in Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs Second Round, with the series tied 2-2. The game is scheduled for Thursday, May 11, at 9:30 PM ET and will be broadcast on TNT, SportsNet, and TVAS.
According to a computer model, the final score is predicted to be 4-2 in favor of the Stars. The model also suggests that the Stars are favored to win, with a moneyline pick of -190, while the Kraken have +160 odds.
The Stars have had a strong overall record this season, with 47 wins, 21 losses, and 14 ties. In games that have required overtime, they have a record of 8-16-24. In their 29 games decided by one goal, the Stars have a record of 10-6-13. When they have finished a game with only one goal, they have gone 3-9-2. They have finished 5-5-7 in the 17 games this season when they scored exactly two goals. The Stars have scored three or more goals in 59 games, winning 45, losing 7, and tying 7. When Dallas has scored a single power-play goal, they have gone 15-5-7. In games when they have outshot their opponent, Dallas is 32-12-7. In the 37 games when their opponents have had more shots, the Stars have finished 17-11-9.
In Game 4 of the playoffs, the Stars dominated early in the game and built a 4-0 lead within the first 31 minutes of the contest. Although they slightly lost the 5-on-5 metrics with a 44.83 Corsi% and a 42% high-danger chances for percent (HDCF%), they took advantage of some power-play opportunities (2-for-3 with the man advantage) and got No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen back in the lineup.
The Kraken, on the other hand, have a 46-28-8 record this season. In games that have required overtime, they have a record of 11-8-19. In their 32 games that were decided by one goal, the Kraken have racked up 44 points. This season, they have recorded just one goal in 13 games, and they have earned two points (0-11-2) in those contests. Seattle has earned six points (2-11-2 record) this season when scoring a pair of goals. The Kraken have scored more than two goals in 62 games, earning 104 points from those matchups (50-8-4). This season, Seattle has scored a lone power-play goal in 32 games and picked up 45 points with a record of 21-8-3. When outshooting their opponent, Seattle is 36-18-4. The Kraken have been outshot by their opponents 32 times this season, and they have earned 31 points in those games.
Of the remaining eight playoff teams, the Kraken have the lowest expected goals/60 (all strengths) at 2.45. Of the 17 total goals they’ve potted, only six have come from high-danger chances, and four of them were on low-danger chances. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in hockey, ranking third in expected goals against/60 (xGA/60) during the regular season. In the playoffs, they’ve actually improved that xGA/60 metric to 2.64, yet the goals allowed have increased.
It remains to be seen who will come out on top in Game 6.