The Pittsburgh Pirates will make a road trip to Great American Ball Park to face their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds. The matchup starts at 7:10 p.m. ET and you can catch the game on ATPT and FSOH.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Odds
Cincinnati (+130) is coming into this one as the underdog to Pittsburgh (-140) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +105 for the under and -125 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at +105 for the Pirates -1.5 runs and -125 for the Reds +1.5.
The Pirates are 26-20 SU and are 22-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 3.6 units for moneyline bettors through the early part of the year, despite having lost 0.5 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 16-32 SU and 25-23 ATS. They’ve lost 12.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.5 units ATS.
Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 21-25-2 so far in 2018. Pittsburgh has been a decent over bet with a total record of 24-17-5.
The right-handed Jameson Taillon is getting the nod for Pittsburgh. Taillon is 2-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 40 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Cincinnati this year (five starts).
The Reds are sending righty Matt Harvey (0-2, 6.17 ERA) to the mound. Harvey has 27 strikeouts and nine walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.43. Harvey has yet to face the Pirates this year, but he made two starts against them in 2017, posting a 1-0 record with a 5.73 ERA.
As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 5.2 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 5.60, a WHIP of 1.53 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. In 22 games against NL Central opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.35 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.58.
The Cincinnati offense has produced 4.0 runs per outing, including 2.7 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .160/.256/.244 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Reds’ offense has been led by first baseman Joey Votto and second baseman Scooter Gennett. Votto is hitting .283/.406/.428 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 22 runs scored, and Gennett’s line is .318/.355/.503 with seven homers, 27 RBIs and 21 runs.
Votto particularly relished batting against right-handed pitchers at home last year. Over 253 such plate appearances, he slashed .347/.490/.648 (compared to his total season line of .320/.453/.577).
In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.28 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.91, along with a K-per-9 of 9.88.
The Pirates offense has slashed .260/.336/.427 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 6.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by right fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Marte is slashing .308/.366/.503 with six home runs, 19 RBIs, 30 runs and 10 stolen bases, while Cervelli (.278/.399/.522) has produced six homers, 25 RBIs and 16 runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .275/.333/.379, Marte didn’t do especially well against righty pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .250/.289/.317 across 128 such plate appearances.
The Pirates have gained 2.9 units and are 18-18 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 9.0 units and are 18-16 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 19 that went under the total.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has cashed in four of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
The Reds have lost three of their last four games SU.
Cincinnati has recorded 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 12.6 over its last five.
The Pirates have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 11 over their last 10.
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