The week continues in Taiwan and St. Petersburg as the WTA Tour moves along with a combination of an international (Taiwan) and premier (St. Petersburg) tournament. Which players will move forward, and which ones will fall behind in the race for rankings points? Here are our tennis picks for Wednesday:
Stefanie Voegele vs. Saisai Zheng
Odds: Zheng -155
One of the basic shifts a tennis better has to account for is the shift from a first-round tournament match to a second-round tournament match. In a first-round match, the basic point of focus – if the players are relatively equal – is the performance in the previous tournament. It could be that the player who is on a roll is expected to continue to do well. It could also be that the player who underperformed in the previous tournament is ready to bounce back. Those are the standard ways to read first-round matches. Also, if one player went deep into a tournament and might be tired, the opponent might be ready to pounce. If a losing player (who did poorly in her last tournament) is felt to have a total lack of confidence, though, the tired player might still win. All those things are factored into who wins or loses a first-round match.
In a second-round match, it’s very different.
In a second round of a tournament, the way two players performed in the previous round on the previous day should be seen as more of a factor. The previous tournament for each player recedes a little bit. Fatigue might be more of a factor in the semifinals of that tournament, as matches accumulate. In the second round, it’s not really an issue.
So, how did these players play in their first-round matches? They both won, but Voegele needed three sets and Zheng needed only two. They both went up against fairly average players, so Zheng’s performance should clearly be seen as better. It’s not a piece of cake betting play, but Zheng has earned the right to be seen as the player more likely to play well. Take Zheng in three with your tennis picks.
Pick: Zheng in three sets
Elizaveta Kulichkova vs Zarina Diyas
This is a case in which Diyas is the volatile player and the one bettors must focus on. Diyas got a rough draw in the Australian Open against Madison Keys, a player who had made the semifinals of the Grand Slam event the previous year. Diyas lost the match, but the way the first set went is a real puzzle for bettors. Diyas was serving, 5-3 and 40-love, but she lost three set points, got broken for 5-4, and lost the set in a tiebreaker. She showed that she’s capable of hanging with one of the best players on the women’s side but clearly, she has some work to do on contain her negative momentum when things aren’t going so well. Diyas is a talented player, but she might not have confidence to take down some of the top players. However, Kulichkova isn’t of that caliber, so this should be a very manageable task for Diyas. Bet her to take care of business in straight sets with your tennis picks.
Pick: Diyas in straight sets
Monica Niculescu vs. Timea Babos
Odds: Niculescu -128
This is a case in which one player has a very distinctive style that is quite unique – almost to just her – on the Tour. Niculescu is what baseball players could call a “soft tosser,” someone who throws 75-mile-an-hour change-ups and slow, 72-mile-per-hour curveballs with an 89-mile-per-hour fastball. Niculescu offers all sorts of chip and chop forehands, something virtually no one else on the tour does. She doesn’t try to hit for power. She tries to get opponents off balance. Is Babos good enough to hang with this? Yes. She won a match at the Australian Open and won three matches in the warmup for that event, beating Eugenie Bouchard along the way. Niculescu might be the slightly bigger name in this matchup, which is why we get Babos as the underdog here. However, Babos should not only hang but bank on her to take it in three.
Pick: Babos in three sets
