Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick 07/15/18

The Toronto Blue Jays will take on their division rival Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will televise the matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Odds

Toronto (+150) is the underdog against Boston (-160) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 10 runs (-120 for the under and +100 for the over). Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at -145 for the Blue Jays +1.5 runs and +125 for the Red Sox -1.5.

The Red Sox are 67-30 straight up (SU) and 58-38 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 22.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 19.9 units (ATS). Boston has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have gone 43-51 SU this year and are 44-49 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 6.1 units for moneyline gamblers and 9.6 units ATS. Toronto’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Boston games have had an over/under record of 47-46-3 so far in 2018. Toronto has an over/under record of 44-41-8.

Right-hander Marcus Stroman will get the nod for the visiting Blue Jays. Stroman is 2-6 with a 5.90 ERA and 48 strikeouts. He has yet to face Boston this year, but he did make three starts against the Red Sox in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record against them with a 3.63 ERA and 13 strikeouts.

The Red Sox will turn to lefty Brian Johnson (1-2, 4.23 ERA), who has 37 strikeouts and 13 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.48. Johnson made two starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-0 record in 2017, compiling a 1-0 record with a 5.73 ERA.

As a unit, Boston’s pitching staff has given up 3.8 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.78, a WHIP of 1.22 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 3.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In 44 games against divisional opponents, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 3.58 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.02.

Boston’s hitters have produced 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .310/.372/.489 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts have led the Red Sox hitters this year. Martinez is slashing .330/.392/.648 with 29 home runs, 80 RBIs and 71 runs scored, and Betts has produced a line of .362/.450/.698 with 23 homers, 51 RBIs, 79 runs and 17 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Toronto’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.05 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.89, along with a K-per-9 of 9.17.

The Blue Jays offense has slashed .238/.312/.419 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this year, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Toronto’s hitters have been paced by third baseman Yangervis Solarte and right fielder Kevin Pillar. Solarte is slashing .244/.301/.428 with 16 home runs, 48 RBIs and 43 runs scored, while Pillar (.247/.279/.407) is up to eight homers, 37 RBIs, 42 runs and 11 steals.

The Blue Jays have lost 11.6 units and are 15-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 23.1 units and are 45-26 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 36 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve gone under.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER

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Betting Notes

The over has cashed in five of Boston’s last seven games.

The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 games SU.

The Toronto defense has allowed 10 errors over the last 10 games, compared to four errors for Boston over its last 10.

The Blue Jays have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit nine over their last 10.


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