This weekend’s UFC 175 event scheduled for the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, NV features a female bantamweight title fight between champion Ronda Rousey and challenger Alexis Davis as the co-main event. At the start of fight week, the fight line is nearly un-bettable, with Rousey as the (-1950) favorite, and Davis returning (+950). Most people are of the opinion that a bet on Davis is throwing money away, and betting on Rousey comes with a lot of juice to make money, so let’s take a closer look at the bout.
It has been well documented that the UFC has failed to create a truly challenging opponent for the dominant Rousey, and the common thinking is that it is just Davis’ turn to line up and lose to Rousey.
Alexis Davis last win was over Jessica Eye via Split Decision, and Eye had a solid win over Sara Kaufman, a veteran high level fighter who is on the UFC roster as well. Davis also beat an undersized Rosie Sexton and going back to her days in Invicta, has wins over standouts Hitomi Akano and Shanya Bazler, so her five fight winning streak gives her the resume necessary for a title shot in today’s UFC.
Davis has established herself as one of the best women in the world, in the tier that sits below Rousey. The problem is that Rousey has faced equally tough competition to Davis, Rousey has dominated and finished everybody, usually without breaking a sweat. Rousey sits well above the tier that Davis is on, and the line reflects that.
In MMA anything can happen, but betting Davis is a tall order. Very little in her standard MMA game prepares her for the physical, aggressive rush that Rousey brings. The bottom line is she is going to have to get lucky with a strike that hurts Rousey. If she accomplishes that, she must close the deal and not let Rousey off the hook. Perhaps the last question that exists about Rousey’s game is how she fights hurt, or fights back from behind. We saw Lightweight Champion Jon Jones answer those question in the Gustafsson fight, and Rousey could use a challenge like that on her resume. Is Alexis davis that woman? Most people would say ‘No’.
