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Waste Management Open and Super Bowl 53 Betting: Mickelson vs. Edelman

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

One of the most entertaining aspects of the Super Bowl is the incredible prop bets the sportsbooks come up with heading in to the big game. An intriguing one on the board for Super Bowl 53 is the cross-sport entry pinning Phil Mickelson’s performance in the Waste Management Open up against New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman’s performance in the Super Bowl.

Waste Management Open and Super Bowl 53 Betting: Mickelson vs. Edelman

Which will be higher on 2/3/19? (No action if player misses cut)

Phil Mickelson total birdies -115

Julian Edelman receptions -115 

Phil Mickelson Total Birdies -115

Mickelson is coming off a strong performance in the Desert Classic in which he placed second with a final score of 25-under. Even more impressive is the fact that he hasn’t finished any lower than 16th in his last three appearances in the Waste Management Open, including a fifth-place finish there a year ago. Mickelson finished 14-under in that last appearance. The key is to try to figure out how many birdies Mickelson will hit on the final day of that tournament. In his last eight rounds of golf, Mickelson has averaged a PGA Tour-best 6.00 birdies per round. However, Mickelson is certainly exceeding all expectations in comparison with last year when he averaged 4.31 birdies per round on the PGA Tour. It’s difficult to envision Mickelson scoring more than his 2019 average of 6.00 birdies in the final round of the Waste Management Open. Somewhere between last year’s average of 4.31 birdies and this year’s average of 6.0 birdies probably makes sense as a safe bet for this Sunday.

Julian Edelman Total Receptions -115

Edelman averaged nine receptions per game throughout the 2018 NFL regular season. He has hovered around that mark in the first two games of the postseason with nine receptions in the AFC Divisional round playoff game against the Los Angeles Chargers and then seven receptions in the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Edelman didn’t play in last year’s Super Bowl due to injury, but he had five receptions on 13 targets against the Atlanta Falcons the year before. Considering Rob Gronkowski is in the twilight of his career and the Patriots don’t have any serious threats on the outside, there is a very good chance Tom Brady will rely heavily on his speedy underneath target to get first downs. Edelman should be on pace to hit somewhere around his regular season average of nine receptions per game this Sunday.

Smart Money Prediction

Barring an incredible performance by Mickelson on the Sunday of the Waste Management Open in which he exceeds his already impressive season averages, there is a good chance that Edelman should be able to come out on top in this prop bet. Edelman has averaged eight receptions per game in the playoffs after averaging nine receptions during the regular season. As long as he hits that playoff average of eight catches, he should beat out Mickelson. In addition to being a fun and exciting way to add to the entertainment value of the Super Bowl, the smart money is definitely on Edelman and it’s worth taking advantage by playing this prop bet.

Bet Julian Edelman Total Receptions -115

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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