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ATP Players Better Than Their Ranking

The Australian Open is finally upon us, so we’re going to see a lot of clamoring about the field and the seeding for the event. There are always players who are over or under-seeded, and that is important to evaluate for betting purposes. So taking a look at the Australian Open on the ATP side of things, who are the players that are most undervalued?

Juan Martin Del Potro

Juan Martin del Potro was able to play a total of 14 matches in the 2014 and 2015 seasons combined, and saw his ranking fall to 1042. He could have easily chosen to retire but had his wrist mended and decided to carry on.

His comeback went from good to great. Del Potro’s slice and dice game trapped multiple major champion Stan Wawrinka in Wimbledon. In Rio, his searing forehand punctured Novak Djokovic’s Olympic dream, and he ended Rafael Nadal’s inspiring run to the semifinals. The tall Argentine wasn’t done winning big. He continued to surprise as he overcame Andy Murray in a long, grueling, and epic five-setter in the Davis Cup semifinals. In the frenzied atmosphere of the finals in Croatia, and with Diego Maradona in the stands, Del Potro became a national hero by mounting another hard-to-fathom victory against Marin Cilic, which led Argentina to their first ever Davis Cup triumph. Delpo was down two sets and seemed out of it, but he kept charging up the hill to glory.

The comeback was successful and the hugs, tears and emotions returned, but for all those giant-killing victories, Del Potro didn’t earn massive points. He finished the year in the top 40 but that doesn’t reflect his level of play. If he keeps those injuries away, 2017 will no doubt see him rise way higher on the ATP ranking table.

Ryan Harrison

Ryan Harrison, once seen as the savior of American tennis by overeager commentators in the States, has always been the victim of high expectations. In 2016, he transformed himself to become consistent, fitter, and mentally stronger. All these years, Harrison has dropped off by the end of the season but 2016 was different. He had a top-10 victory, reached the third round of a major for the first time, and ended the year ranked 89th in the world. A top-90 finish means he’ll have easy access to a majority of tournaments as opposed to his journeyman-like stature, where he had to play qualifiers and hope for wild cards. The opportunity has opened up once again for Harrison to improve his results and rise even higher.

Juan Monaco

Wrist surgery meant Juan Monaco was absent from the tour in the early part of 2016 and six months overall dating back to August 2015. However, within two months of his return, he was back hoisting an ATP trophy in Houston. The Argentine was ranked 148th in March but ended the year at No. 66. Monaco is a steady player and a regular top-40 player. If he stays fit, he can add to his nine ATP titles and perhaps surge back to a seeded position at a major tournament (top 32).

Jiri Vesely

Jiri Vesely has long been touted as a big talent but he has repeatedly failed to make big impressions. 2016 changed it all. Maybe he can look back and be proud of his achievements. Vesely beat Novak Djokovic, who was World No. 1 at the time, in Monte Carlo. He stunned Dominic Thiem with his shotmaking skills in the second round of Wimbledon, and went on to make round of 16, where he fell to his countryman Tomas Berdych in five sets. Vesely should use this highlight as a springboard to further success in 2017. The 6-foot-6 Czech is ranked 54th in the world but for a man of his potential, that’s too low.

It’ll be interesting to see what he does at the first grand slam of the year. Success for him probably means making it to the quarterfinals or possibly even the semis. He’s not a real threat to win it all. However, making a deep run in the 2017 Australian Open would be a big step forward for a player who could be on the rise.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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