Two disappointing seasons come to an end on Sunday as the Buffalo Bills visit the New York Jets. Both teams had playoff expectations heading into the season but both will fall quite short. For the Bills, they are about to endure some significant changes. They have already fired their head coach and have benched their starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor. They’ll turn to former first-round bust E.J. Manuel. Speaking of teams going down the depth chart to find a starting quarterback, the Jets are doing the same. The Jets are starting former starter, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been benched multiple times this season. He’ll face his former team. This is one of the uglier NFL games of Week 17 and definitely one of the more challenging ones to handicap.
Moneyline: Bills -185
Handicap/Spread Odds: Bills -3.5
Total O/U: 42
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 9/15/2016 | NYJ 37 – BUF 31 | NYJ 1 | O 40.5 |
| 1/3/2016 | NYJ 17 – BUF 22 | BUF 2.5 | U 41 |
| 11/12/2015 | BUF 22 – NYJ 17 | BUF 2.5 | U 42 |
| 11/24/2014 | NYJ 3 – BUF 38 | BUF -2.5 | U 42 |
| 10/26/2014 | BUF 43 – NYJ 23 | BUF 3 | O 40 |
On The Bills Side of the Ball (7-8 Record, 6-8-1 ATS)
The Bills lost in overtime to Miami, which led to the firing of Rex Ryan, Tyrod Taylor may need a hernia surgery and Sammy Watkins says the team needs a culture change. It’s not a good time in Buffalo, who are decent offensively, ranking 12th in yards and they lead the league in rushing. It is defensively where the Bills struggle as they’re 19th in the NFL in yards allowed, and that was supposed to be Ryan’s (along with brother and defensive coordinator Rob) job. If Taylor doesn’t play (as expected), that means the ball goes to E.J. Manuel under center, and to say that he has been a major disappointment in the NFL is an understatement.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | MIA | L 31-34 x | L -4.5 | O 44.5 |
| 12/18/2016 | CLE | W 33-13 | W -10.5 | O 43 |
| 12/11/2016 | PIT | L 20-27 | L 1 | O 45.5 |
| 12/4/2016 | @OAK | L 24-38 | L 3 | O 48.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | JAC | W 28-21 | L -8.5 | O 43.5 |
On The Jets Side of the Ball (4-11 Record, 5-9-1 ATS)
Things might be worse for the Jets, who were embarrassed in New England and while Todd Bowles hasn’t been fired, there might not be a hotter seat in the NFL. There are rumors of in-fighting between team members, Darrelle Revis wants a new deal despite no longer being a top cornerback, and there are plenty of other problems for this team, which has been outscored 75-16 in their last two games. This is a team that is in shambles, and a loss like the one in New England might mean that a lot of people are getting fired on Monday, starting with Bowles, but it won’t stop there.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | @NE | L 3-41 | L 17 | U 45 |
| 12/17/2016 | MIA | L 13-34 | L 2.5 | O 40 |
| 12/11/2016 | @SF | W 23-17 x | W 3 | U 42.5 |
| 12/5/2016 | IND | L 10-41 | L -1 | O 48.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | NE | L 17-22 | W 8.5 | U 48 |
Quick Analysis
The Bills are 6-8-1 ATS this season, going 3-3-1 ATS on the road and 3-4 ATS as favorites, while the Jets are 5-9-1 ATS overall and 2-4-1 ATS at home, while going 3-8-1 ATS as underdogs. For over/unders, the Bills are 12-3 O/U and the Jets are 7-7-1 O/U. The Bills are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five against the Jets, who won the first meeting of the year by a score of 37-31 in Buffalo. It was the first time in six meetings with Buffalo that the Jets won and/or covered.
Prediction
You know things are bad for the Jets when a team that just fired their head coach is favored by more than a field goal coming into their house. At least the Bills have been trying hard and playing for pride more than anything; the Jets seem to have given up and that’s a dangerous thing for everyone involved. The first meeting was an offensive shootout, but if the Bills have Manuel playing, they won’t score that much, although they do still have LeSean McCoy coming out of the backfield. This game is a complete flip of the coin depending on who is playing (because of injuries or other reasons), and who is more motivated to go into the offseason on a high note. Take the Jets, only because they’re at home and the Bills are hurting at quarterback.
Pick: Jets +3.5
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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