NBA Preview: Chicago Bulls (34-39) at Milwaukee Bucks (37-35), 3:30 p.m. EST
Line: Bucks -6.5. Total 204.5.
Every year, you will find several series during the NBA regular season that are one-sided. Usually these one-sided series are between two teams on opposite ends of the standings. The haves vs. the have-nots, so to speak. Other times one team may just have match-up issues with the other. Sometimes one team has a scheduling advantage over the other, catching their opponent on the back-end of a back-to-back, at the end of a long road trip, or after playing a few tough opponents.
The majority of these one-sided series are easy to explain. However, some are hard to fathom. Milwaukee’s dominance over Chicago this season falls into the latter category.
The Bucks are 3-0 against the Bulls this season. Milwaukee has outscored Chicago by 57 points and have an ATS (Against The Spread) margin of 65.5 points better than the Bulls during these three games. All three games were played in December in a span of 17 days and the first two games were on back-to-back days during a home-and-home set.
It is difficult to try and find a reason for the Bucks’ dominance over the Bulls. Neither team was hot or cold coming into these games. In fact, the Bucks came into the home-and-home series with Chicago on December 15 and 16 losing three straight games and, after the sweep, they lost two more in a row.
The Bulls came into the December 31 game with Milwaukee winning two of their previous three games and then won three in a row after that loss to the Bucks.
These are two teams that are basically dead even in the standings. In fact, if you take out the three head-to-head games against each other, the Bucks would only have a half-game lead over Chicago.
There is one tell-tale sign that Milwaukee must have some kind of match-up advantage over the Bulls. The Bucks thrashed the Bulls on the back-end of that home-and-home series, 95-69 at Chicago. That was impressive considering how difficult a situational spot the Bucks were facing in that game. Historically, in a home-and-home set between two fairly even teams, the loser of the first game on the road generally bounces back and wins the second game at home.
Maybe the reason the Bucks are dominating the Bulls is simply because the “Greek Freak”, Giannis Antetokounmpo, is dominating the Bulls. Antetokounmpo has scored 87 points, grabbed 30 rebounds, dished out 22 assists, and added 8 steals and 9 blocked shots in the three wins over Chicago.
So I like the Bucks to win and cover the spread in this game to sweep the season series. However, I will not bet them because the Bucks’ Jabari Parker played an integral role in those three wins, too, scoring a total of 67 points. Parker tore the ACL in his left knee on February 8 against Miami and is out for the season.
For the Bulls, Dwayne Wade is also out for the season with a fracture in his right elbow. He played all three games, too, but only contributed 40 points in those three losses. With Parker and Wade out, I am not sure how this will affect the individual match-ups for these two teams.
NBA Preview: Sixers vs Pacers
Philadelphia 76ers (27-45) at Indiana Pacers (36-36), 6 p.m. EST
Line: Pacers -8.5. Total 211.
Philly is still #1 in the league with an ATS record of 46-25-1. Indiana is near the bottom at 32-40 ATS on the season. The Sixers have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games.
Indiana sits in the #7 slot in the Eastern Conference, just one game ahead of Miami at #8 and just 2.5 games ahead of Chicago and Detroit, who are tied with 34-39 records in the #9 slot. So, Indiana needs to win this game to inch closer to clinching a playoff spot.
The Pacers had a home-and-home set with Philly in early November and the home teams won both games in overtime. The second game was at Philadelphia and it was the Sixers first win of the season after starting 0-7.
So here we are, four-and-a-half months later, and the Sixers are playing much better and are a cover-the-spread machine against an Indiana team, who is just 7-14 their last 21 games. I do like the Sixers to cover the spread, but I am not going to bet the side, because the total looks more appealing to me.
The Pacers have gone over the total for four straight games after going under 12 of their previous 13 games. So this is a chart-play for me to take the Pacers over the total. The Sixers have gone over the total 3 of their last 4 games and the game that was an under stayed under the total by just half a point.
My record (5-3, +$126). My pick:
Philadelphia / Indiana over 211, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
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