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College Football Free Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks at Virginia Cavaliers

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

No. 23 Virginia Cavaliers are entering the Belk Bowl as underdogs as they prepare to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks. Kickoff for this important game is pegged for 12:00 p.m. ET and ABC is in line to have the TV rights.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview

In this Saturday game, South Carolina is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Gamecocks are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Cavaliers are +165. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54.5 points. Multiple good live betting opportunities may present themselves during this game.

Sharp bettors are leaning toward the Wahoos. The line originally opened at 6 while the total was initially 55.

The Gamecocks are 7-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.1 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-5. The Cavaliers have lost 0.1 units this season. The team is 8-4 ATS and owns an O/U record of 6-5.

The Gamecocks are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Cavaliers are also 7-5 SU.

The Gamecocks are coming off a resounding 28-3 victory over Akron on December 1. The defensive unit did its part in the win, keeping the Zips to just 178 passing yards and 82 rushing yards. Kwadarrius Smith had a productive day for the Zips in that one with 69 yards on six catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Jake Bentley completed just 14 passes on 27 attempts for 199 yards, three scores and two interceptions. Mon Denson (110 yards on 17 rushes) and Rico Dowdle (86 yards on 13 carries) mounted the ground attack while Bryan Edwards (five receptions, 109 yards, one TD) and Deebo Samuel (four catches, 33 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Virginia narrowly came up short in a 34-31 shootout to Virginia Tech. The defense allowed the Hokies to kill the clock by rushing for 254 yards on 45 attempts, including two rush TDs. Tre Turner had a solid showing in the win for Virginia Tech, accounting for 43 rushing yards on one attempt, along with 69 yards on four catches. For Virginia, Bryce Perkins completed 14-of-29 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns. Perkins (112 yards on 24 rush attempts) and Jordan Ellis (52 yards on 12 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Olamide Zaccheaus (four receptions, 55 yards) and Joe Reed (four catches, 119 yards, two TDs) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

South Carolina has run the ball on 51.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Virginia has an overall rush percentage of 58.0 percent. The Gamecocks have run for 163 yards per game and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Wahoos are averaging 171 rush yards per game and have 18 total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Gamecocks ought to hold an edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only 28 sacks while the D-line logged 26 sacks. The Cavaliers offensive line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 28 times.

The Gamecocks offense has tallied 277 yards/contest in the air overall and has 32 passing TDs so far. The Wahoos have produced 212 pass yards per outing and have 23 total pass scores.

South Carolina has allowed opponents to run for an average of 195 yards and pass for 231 yards per game. The Virginia defense has allowed 180.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wahoos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.43 to opposing QBs, while the Gamecocks have allowed a 6.09 ANY/A.

Offensively, Bentley is up to 2,443 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 191-of-299 attempts with 22 passing scores and 11 interceptions. He’s got a 7.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.46 over the last two games.

For the home team, Bryce Perkins has completed 182-of-292 passes for 2,255 yards, 21 TDs and nine INTs. Perkins’ ANY/A stands at 6.56 for the season and 9.33 over his last two games.

Free Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks at Virginia Cavaliers

SU Winner – South Carolina, ATS Winner – South Carolina, O/U – Over

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Notes

Team Betting Notes

The Gamecocks offense has produced 13 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Cavaliers have put up seven such plays.

The South Carolina defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Virginia has given up five such plays.

The South Carolina offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Virginia has created 15 such runs.

The Gamecocks defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cavaliers have given up 15 such runs.

The South Carolina defense has 24 sacks on the year while Virginia has 23.

South Carolina has averaged 4.9 yards per rush attempt across its past three outings and 4.4 over its last two.

Virginia has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.1 over its last two.

Virginia has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 21-point triumph over Liberty on November 10th accounting for the only win over that span.

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Written by GMS Previews

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