The Alabama Crimson Tide rolls into Baton Rouge to impose their will on the LSU Tigers on Saturday, November 5th at 8:00 p.m. ET. The SEC throw-down will be televised on CBS. ESPN’s College Gameday will be featuring this rivalry on Saturday morning. As of this article, Alabama comes into Louisiana as a -8.5 favorite and the over/under now sits at 45.5.
Both Alabama and LSU are entering this game off of bye weeks. The Crimson Tide are still undefeated, dispatching of their opposition with relative ease. The Tigers are a different story, one that includes the closing of a coach Les Miles chapter and a opening of an LSU three game winning streak. Buckle-up your chin straps folks, this games fixin’ to be a slobber-knocker.
#1 Alabama (8-0):
Freshman sensation Jalen Hurts has been all that is advertised and more in 2016. In fact, the Crimson Tide quarterback may very well be on his way to New York for the Heisman Trophy induction ceremony. The multi-dimensional player has produced through the air and over the ground.
Entering the contest in Baton Rouge, Jalen Hurts has completed 128 passes for over 1,500 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also does plenty of damage with his legs, running for 521 yards on a team-high 95 carries and nine more scores.
When Jalen Hurts isn’t calling his own number, he is handing it off to three tail backs that all produce for coach Saban. The fearsome threesome have racked-up over 1,200 yards and nine more trips to the promised land. Damien Harris leads this trio with 697 yards on the ground. Bruiser Bo Scarborough, leads the triad with five touchdowns.
Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart are Jalen Hurts favorite targets at the wide out position. Both run crisp routes and find open space to make third down conversions look easy.
Together they have brought in 71 passes for for almost 950 yards and eight scores. Tight end O.J. Howard also gets into the mix. The shifty big-man has another 22 catches for 278 yards and two more end zone grabs.
The numbers don’t lie, Alabama is one tough cookie on the defensive side of the football. The Crimson Tide are 1st in the nation against the run, allowing only 70 yards a game. They also are 4th in the nation allowing opponents only 14 points a match. What’s even more impressive, is the defense scores as much as most offenses. They have recorded 11 different scores in 2016.
Alabama’s front seven is led by Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams. Both studs put relentless pressure on quarterbacks for all four quarters. Linebacker Reuben Foster is an absolute beast, and defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick shores up a secondary that allows only 204 yards per game.
LSU (5-2):
So far so good is the theme the Tigers are rolling with, after replacing coach Les miles with interim coach Ed Orgeron. The new man-in-charge has opened up the playbook and LSU’s offense is responding. Quarterback Danny Etling leads the charge, with 89 completions for over 1,100 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
Things only get better for LSU when they decide to pound the rock. Phenom Leonard Fournette gouges defenses repeatedly, collecting 670 yards on 83 carries for five scores along the way. This year Fournette has some help from running mate Derrius Guice. Guise adds another 621 yards and seven touchdowns to the mix.
Three wide receivers share about the same amount of catches and yards and scores for the LSU Tigers. As a whole, they have caught 63 passes for over 800 yards and six scores. Unfortunately, it might be too little too late, as LSU ranks 108th in the nation in passing offense.
LSU is no slouch when it comes to playing defense either. The Tigers are especially tough against running backs in 2016, ranking 7th in the nation against the run (104.1). LSU also defends the pass well, allowing teams just over 200 yards through the air (42nd). This front seven will be the best that Jalen Hurts has seen thus far.
Trends and Notes:
The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.
The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
The Over is 4-0 in the Crimson Tide last 4 road games.
The Under is 9-1-2 in the Tigers last 12 games overall.
The Road team is 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
Game Prediction:
The Crimson Tide are the most complete team in the SEC. LSU has the most dynamic running back in the conference in Leonard Fournette. Alabama is more capable of moving the chains via the pass than the Tigers, which keeps the LSU front seven on their heels. That’s when Jalen Hurts can strike, and before you know it your down 21 points.
Yes, LSU will play inspired ball at home. The Tigers usually do, but being a one-dimensional team against the best defense in college football, is a recipe for disaster. Not enough talent on the offensive side of the ball for the Tigers in this one. Take the Tide to be up early and keep the Tiger’s offense contained. The pick to take here is Alabama to cover the first half -6.
