The Orlando Magic (11-15) square off against the Denver Nuggets (13-11) at Amway Center. The game can be seen on Fox SportsNet Florida at 7 p.m. ET on Friday, December 8, 2017.
Orlando is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 218 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic Free Prediction
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after their 123-114 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing. Getting to the charity stripe was one of New Orleans’ biggest advantages. They made 29 trips to the line, while Denver went 22 times. Gary Harris was Denver’s high scorer with 24 points on 8-for-19 shooting.
In the Magic’s last game, they were victorious over the Atlanta Hawks, 110-106. The Magic, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 18.8, had a mark of 25.5 and had a better turnover percentage (13.1 vs. 14.3). With 22 points and 16 rebounds, Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic had a good performance.
Points at the line could be few and far between for Orlando in this matchup. The Magic currently rank 23rd in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.181, while Denver ranks second in FTA rate allowed (0.161). Also, the Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent). The Magic, meanwhile, rank 29th at grabbing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 74.8 percent.
Denver comes into the game with records of 13-11 straight up (SU) and 9-15 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Nuggets have a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total (54.2 percent).
Meanwhile, Orlando owns records of 11-15 SU and 11-14-1 ATS. In opposition of Denver, Magic games have gone over the projected point total 53.8 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Harris (17.6 points, 3.4 assists and 2.8 steals) has been great for the Nuggets while Aaron Gordon (21.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 1.6 blocks) has contributed greatly to the Magic.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Nikola Jokic recorded 12 points, 17 rebounds and nine assists in the first matchup, in which the Nuggets beat the Magic 125-107, covering as 9-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 232 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 217 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.7 vs. 17.8) and had a better free throw rate (0.241 vs. 0.161).
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 2-10 ATS on the road with 6 overs and 6 unders.
Orlando is 4-7 ATS at home with 6 overs and 5 unders.
When allowing below 100 points, Denver and Orlando are both 5-1.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Magic are 11-9 and the Nuggets are 11-6.
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.7) while Orlando ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (14.2).
The Nuggets average 48.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Magic rank 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (49.6).
Denver ranks second in fast break points per game (15.2) while Orlando ranks 24th in fast break points allowed per game (12.2).
The Magic rank fifth in assists per game (23.5) while the Nuggets rank 27th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
Denver ranks eighth in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Orlando ranks 28th (46.7).
The Magic rank 11th in three pointers attempted per game (30.3) while the Nuggets rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (30.0).
Orlando ranks 20th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.1) while Denver ranks 27th (20.1).
The Nuggets average 7.9 steals per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Magic rank 19th in steals allowed per game (8.3).
Orlando ranks 10th in blocks per game (5.2) while Denver ranks 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Orlando is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.8, up from 0.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Magic have scored an average of 108.4 points per game (0.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.2 points per game (0.6 below their season average).
