NBA Preview: Chris Paul will have to carry a heavy load with Blake Griffin out if the Clippers are going to advance to the conference semifinals.
#5 Utah Jazz (53-33) vs. #4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-33), Tuesday. 10:30 p.m. EST
Line: Clippers -3. Total 196.5.
Series: Tied 2-2.
There is something strange going on in this series. Whenever a star player leaves the game, that player’s team goes on to win the game.
In Game 1, Rudy Gobert injured his left knee before a shot was even taken. He only played 17 seconds. The Jazz rallied to win on a Joe Johnson buzzer beater 97-95. In Game 3, Blake Griffin injured his foot at the end of the first half and did not return. Chris Paul scored 24 second-half points and the Clippers rallied to win 111-106. In Game 4, Gordon Hayward left the game in the first half due to food poisoning and did not return. Johnson, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors combined for 63 points off the bench as Utah rallied to win 105-98.
Gobert is back and Hayward is probable to be back in Game 5 for Utah. The Jazz are fortunate to even be in this series considering they have yet to play a single game at full strength. Johnson, Favors and Hood have been huge off the bench for Utah in this series.
Griffin is out for the season for the Clippers. This does not necessarily spell doom and gloom for Los Angeles. The Clips were 10-10 without Griffin this season and 31-16 without him last year in the regular season. Los Angeles is 0-3 without Griffin in the postseason the last two seasons. However, in addition to Griffin being out, the Clips were also without Chris Paul in both of their playoff losses in 2015-16.
Vegas is not making a huge deal out of Griffin being out. The Clippers opened as 3.5-point chalk for Game 5, while in Game 1, Los Angeles was favored by 5.5 points with Utah at full strength. So Vegas is saying the Clips are only 2 points better as a team with Griffin playing.
Paul can will this team to win. He has averaged 26.8 points per game, 10.8 assists per game and 6 rebounds per game in this series. In the last two games, mostly without Griffin, Paul has averaged 30.5 points per game, 11 assists per game and 7.5 boards per game. However, I am not sure if he can will the Clippers to win two out of the final three games in this series with Utah at full strength.
If Paul is able to push Los Angeles into the conference semifinal round, the buck will stop there. A rested Golden State is waiting for them in the next round and the Warriors have owned the Clippers the past couple of years.
My posted picks are 6-2 in the playoffs. However, I am not feeling super confident with the games on the board for Tuesday. I like the Jazz, but am worried about what coach Quin Snyder is going to do with his rotations. Snyder has a lot of tough decisions to make with Hayward coming back, Gobert on a minutes restriction and his bench playing so well. Austin Rivers is also back for the Clippers for Game 5.
My #1 totals were better than my #1 sides during the regular season, but I have not been feeling the totals this postseason. My sides have done better in the playoffs. I will make a pick for today only because I am hot. However, I am going to drop it down to a half-unit play. I also have leans to the Spurs and Rockets, although I hate laying that many points.
My pick:
Utah Jazz +3, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, small play).
Good luck.
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