Back in 2013, Josh Gordon was unquestionably one of the best young wide receivers in the league. He was so good, in fact, that he’s survived in the NFL in the years since in large part because of that performance. But my math says that was five years ago. What kind of impact will Josh Gordon have on the New England Patriots this season? What about in his first game against the Detroit Lions?
Let’s take a look at the odds from BetDSI Sportsbook.
Josh Gordon total receptions in Week 3 vs. Detroit
Over 4.5 (-115)
Under 4.5 (-115)
Josh Gordon total receiving yards in Week 3 vs. Detroit
Over 55.5 (-130)
Under 55.5 (+100)
Josh Gordon total receiving touchdowns in 2018
Over 7.5 (-140)
Under 7.5 (+110)
Josh Gordon total receiving yards in 2018
Over 875.5 (-110)
Under 875.5 (-120)
First off, let me say this. If I’m the Patriots, I trade a conditional fifth rounder for Gordon all day, every day. That’s a deal any team would be foolish not to make. Gordon is just 27 years old and even if he barely gets on the field, there’s a great chance no one New England would have taken in the fifth round of the 2020 draft would even make the team.
Gordon has been a tantalizing talent, but it’s not all based on that 2013 receiving stat line. He caught 87 passes for a league-leading 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns that year so it weighs into the conversation, no doubt. When he has played, he’s looked like he could still be that dominant. In his five games of 2014 before being suspended, he caught 24 passes for 303 yards. In five games last season, he caught 18 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown. These yardage totals are coming with horrible teams around him and atrocious quarterbacks tossing him the ball.
.@JOSH_GORDONXII at @Patriots practice! #GoPats pic.twitter.com/gsQlNq0xdv
— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2018
Neither of those descriptions fit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
Here’s the issue with Gordon, especially concerning this week’s props against Detroit. He just doesn’t know the playbook. That means his route tree will be minimal and, with the exception of go routes, he probably won’t be on the field. If you’re going to bet the over at 4.5, you have to be thinking Brady will bring the bomb squad in with Gordon. That doesn’t make any sense to me since Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett already bring those deep ball qualities to the table and both those guys know the playbook. The under is the safest bet on catches this week. I’d go the under on total yards as well.
https://twitter.com/dpdrahus/status/1042614598728384513
The season bets offer something more. Gordon has flashed any time he’s been on the field, even in the single game he played this season with the Browns. There’s a good chance that, since he missed most of training camp, he’s not even in game shape yet. There’s another solid chance that he’ll be suspended again since the Browns’ bailing on him on a Saturday right before a game certainly does not make me think that’s an impossibility.
The Patriots are hurting at wideout, which is a good reason for them to make this deal, so Gordon will get to see the field more as the season rolls on. Will it be enough to hit eight touchdowns and 876 receiving yards?
Last year only Brandin Cooks (1,082) and Rob Gronkowski (1,084) surpassed that yardage total with the Pats and that was in 16 and 14 games, respectively. On touchdowns, only Gronk had eight receiving. Those numbers are just too high. The under on both is the safe bet as well.
