The Houston Rockets (1-3) go head-to-head against the Los Angeles Clippers (2-2) at Toyota Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, October 26, 2018, and will air on ATTSN Southwest.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 217.5 points with Houston set as a 2.5-point favorite.
Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets ATS Prediction
The Clippers are hoping to rebound after not being able to cover as 5.5-point underdogs in their 116-109 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game. The game’s total points (225) finished under the projected point total of 237.5. New Orleans’ 6.7 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Los Angeles, who had a mark of 13.9. The Pelicans’ mark was better than their season average of 11.4, while the Clippers’ was above the 10.3 mark opponents have averaged against New Orleans this season. Tobias Harris was Los Angeles’ leading scorer with 26 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
In the Rockets’ last game, they fell to the Utah Jazz, 100-89. They were unable to cover as 1-point underdogs. The total points for the game (189) finished well under the projected point total of 217. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Utah’s biggest advantages. They made 28 trips to the line, while Houston went just 14 times. James Harden put together a solid performance for Houston, leading the team in scoring with 29 points on 10-for-19 shooting.
The physical Houston offense could be getting to the foul line a lot in this contest. Dating back to last season, the Rockets rank fourth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.225, while Los Angeles has been among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 22nd-ranked FTA rate of 0.205).
Since last season, the Clippers are 44-42 straight up (SU) and 44-48-1 against the spread (ATS). Games including Los Angeles have gone over the O/U total 50.5 percent of the time since last season.
Meanwhile, the Rockets, are 66-20 SU and 49-47-1 ATS since last season. Vegas has been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Houston games over that same period with 49 overs compared to 47 unders.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Rockets lost 115-112, unable to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. Harden scored a game-high 31 points and also put up 14 assists. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was 6.5 points above the projected point total of 220.5 points. Los Angeles was effective at getting to and converting from the free throw line. The Clippers made 26 of their 26 free throws (100.0 percent), while the Rockets were 11-15 (73.3 percent).
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Houston is 38-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Los Angeles is 14-2.
The Rockets are 72-17 when they score more than 100 points, while the Clippers are 42-28.
Los Angeles ranks third in points in the paint per game (52.3) while Houston ranks 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.3).
The Rockets rank fifth in steals per game (8.4) while the Clippers rank 27th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
Houston ranks seventh in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while Los Angeles ranks 29th (5.7).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (41.9) while the Clippers rank 22nd (26.7).
Los Angeles ranks fifth in second chance points per game (13.8) while Houston ranks 23rd (11.4).
The Rockets rank ninth in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while the Clippers rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
Houston ranks 16th in fast break points allowed per game (12.2) while Los Angeles ranks 29th (15.3).
The Clippers rank 20th in assists per game (22.3) while the Rockets rank 28th (21.1).
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