The Milwaukee Bucks (4-0) look to remain unbeaten when they square off with the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-3) at Target Center. The game will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, October 26, 2018.
Milwaukee is a 1-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 233 points.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Prediction
The Bucks will be looking for similar success after comfortably covering the 5-point spread against the Philadelphia 76ers in their last matchup, 123-108. The total points for the game (231) finished over the projected point total of 227.5. The Bucks had a superb turnover percentage of 9.6 (better than their season average of 14.7) and had a free throw rate of 0.280 (above their season average of 0.164). Milwaukee received a boost from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who accumulated 32 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists. This gave him his zeroth triple-double of the season.
In the Timberwolves’ last matchup, they lost to the Toronto Raptors, 112-105, but did cover as 8.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (217) came in under the projected point total of 226. Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Minnesota. The Raptors had a rate of 0.579 (above their season average of 0.565), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 0.495. Minnesota’s Jimmy Butler had a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 23 points on 7-for-13 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Minnesota ranks 22nd in possessions per game (98.4) and Milwaukee is 23rd (98.1) since last season.
Since last season, the Bucks are 48-38 straight up (SU) and 41-51 against the spread (ATS). Milwaukee games have had a slight tendency to go over the O/U total since last season (53.3 percent).
The Timberwolves are 49-38 SU since last season, but have struggled covering the spread (39-48 ATS). Minnesota’s games have had a tendency to go over the O/U total over that same time frame (52.9 percent).
These two teams split two games last season. The Timberwolves won the last matchup 108-89. Minnesota’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Milwaukee. The Timberwolves had a rate of 0.583 while the Bucks posted a mark of 0.412.
Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Milwaukee is 19-6 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Minnesota is 20-4.
When reaching the century mark, the Bucks are 44-22 and the Timberwolves are 47-28.
Minnesota ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.3) while Milwaukee ranks last (10.4).
The Bucks rank fourth in blocks per game (5.6) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd (4.2).
Minnesota ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while Milwaukee ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
The Bucks rank second in fast break points allowed per game (10.0) while the Timberwolves rank 19th (12.7).
Milwaukee ranks 12th in assists per game (23.3) while Minnesota ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (23.8).
The Bucks average 17.9 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.3).
Minnesota ranks 22nd in rebounds per game (42.1) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (40.3).
Neither of these teams shoot many threes. The Bucks are 25th in the NBA with 25.5 three pointers per game while the Timberwolves are last with 22.7 threes per game.
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while Milwaukee ranks fifth (7.1).
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