The Oregon Ducks face a number of changes, and a number of things that are basically the same as they were a year ago. The one thing the Ducks definitely want to change from last season is their bowl destination. They want to be in a playoff bowl, not the Alamo Bowl, and that means they have to win the Pac-12 if they want their dreams to become realized.
Strengths
The Ducks have a trump card in their lineup, and it’s not hard to find: Marcus Mariota was a Heisman Trophy candidate last year, and before he fell off the pace in November, he was at the front of the pack as October of 2013 came to a close. Mariota is a solid passer and an excellent runner. He can hurt an opposing defense in so many different ways. He’s a special player, one who has helped Oregon to remain a national contender every season. Mariota changes the way the game is played. He has to be accounted for at all times, and unlike some quarterbacks who really like to run in one direction (some of them inside or others outside), Mariota can attack a defense from any angle. Unlike a number of quarterbacks who are crafty and elusive kinds of scramblers, the ones who will weave their way through a bunch of tacklers and get a 15-yard gain, Mariota can just fly by defenders with his pure speed and jet 80 yards for a touchdown. He will probably be a Heisman finalist this season.
Weaknesses
The Ducks lost defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, the longtime braintrust on the defensive side of the field for the program, due to retirement. Aliotti crafted an underrated defense in Eugene, and since he was such a fixture at the school, the adjustment period this season could be very difficult. Don Pellum is the new coordinator for the team, and though he might be a good and talented coach, the simple reality of a team adjusting to the methods of a new guy in charge could be disruptive on its own, and have little to do with Pellum’s actual ability.
Another long-term weakness of Oregon is the kicking game. The Ducks have been one of the worst teams in college football over the past two seasons in terms of failing to make kicks beyond 35 to 39 yards. Any kick of at least 40 yards has been doubtful for Oregon, and a few missed points here or there in a tough game against a team such as Stanford can mean a lot… in a bad way.
Schedule
The Ducks don’t waste much time playing one of the bigger games on the 2014 non-conference schedule, taking on Michigan State at home in week two. The reality of home-field advantage at Autzen Stadium in Eugene should be a big help. Conference action begins in week four at Washington State. The Ducks get rival Stanford at home in early November, and they also host Washington. Last year, Oregon had to play those two schools on the road, so this is the better Pac-12 schedule rotation for the Ducks. The toughest road game by far will be at UCLA on Oct. 11.
Outlook
The Ducks have their flaws, but their schedule gives them almost all their toughest games at home. If Oregon defends its home field and loses only to UCLA, it will hit the over. Take the over.
Pick: Over 10.5 at -170
