A couple of teams that like to run the football, Head Coach James Franklin and the No. 16 Penn State Nittany Lions (+27) are set to pay a visit to their Big 10 counterpart Rutgers Scarlet Knights at HighPoint.com Stadium. BTN will broadcast the action and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Rutgers Scarlet Knights Betting Preview
Penn State is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 27 points to Rutgers. If the Scarlet Knights seize control early it will produce a reasonable in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 49.5 points.
The total has not changed after being initially posted at 49.5. Having said that, the line opened at 26 and has recently moved up to 27.
The Nittany Lions are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 4.0 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 6-3-1. The Scarlet Knights have lost 4.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-5 ATS and own an O/U record of 4-6.
The Nittany Lions have gone 7-3 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against conference opponents. The Scarlet Knights are 1-9 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play.
The Nittany Lions hope to make it two in a row 22-10 victory over Wisconsin last week where Trace McSorley completed 19-of-25 passes for only 160 yards and one touchdown. Miles Sanders (159 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller McSorley (nine yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack. DeAndre Thompkins (five receptions, 31 yards, one TD) and KJ Hamler (five catches, 35 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Rutgers might be showing signs of mailing it in after a 35-point loss to Michigan. Artur Sitkowski completed eight-of-19 passes for 40 yards and one interception. Isaih Pacheco (142 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) and Raheem Blackshear (41 yards on 11 carries) handled the running game while Blackshear (five receptions, 16 yards) and Giovanni Rescigno (one catch, 19 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Penn State has run the ball on 58.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Rutgers has a rush percentage of 51.1 percent. The Nittany Lions have produced 205 rush yards/game (including 192 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 29 scores on the ground this year. The Scarlet Knights are totaling 131 rush yards per game (118 in conference) and have 11 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then the Nittany Lions should hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Scarlet Knights have tallied 4.0 yards per carry and given up 5.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Nittany Lions offense has tallied 215 yards/game in the air overall (200 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Scarlet Knights have put up 143 pass yards per game (133.4 in the Big 10) and have four total pass TDs.
Penn State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 176 yards and pass for 201 yards per game. The Rutgers defense has allowed 188.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 230.2 yards per game on the ground. The Nittany Lions are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.94 to opponents, while the Scarlet Knights have given up a 6.52 ANY/A.
Offensively, McSorley is up to 1,788 passing yards this season, and has completed 55 percent of his 256 attempts with 13 passing scores and only four interceptions. He’s got a 6.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.93 over the last two outings.
Artur Sitkowski has connected on 111-of-227 passes for 879 yards, three TDs and 16 INTs for Rutgers. His ANY/A stands at a horrendous 0.64 for the year and 4.76 over his last two outings.
These two teams faced off last year with the final result being a 35-6 win for Penn State.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
SU Winner – Rutgers, ATS Winner – Rutgers, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Nittany Lions offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Scarlet Knights have put up two such plays.
The Penn State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Rutgers has given up five such plays.
The Penn State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Rutgers has created nine such runs.
The Nittany Lions defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Scarlet Knights have given up 27 such runs.
The Penn State D has sacked opposing QBs 34 times this year. Rutgers has registered just 14 sacks.
As a team, Penn State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry across its past three outings and 3.3 over its last two.
Rutgers has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.5 over its last two.
Over its last three contests, Rutgers is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Penn State’s previous game was 53.5. The under cashed in the team’s 22-10 victory over Wisconsin.
Over its last three matchups, Penn State is 2-1 ATS.
The Over/Under for Rutgers’ last match was set at 45. The over cashed in that 42-7 defeat to Michigan.
Penn State has won four of its last five games SU, with a November 3rd defeat to Michigan representing the only loss over that stretch.
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