The Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints are 0-2 on the season. Both teams know they can’t slip to 0-3. The Colts will have to win on the road if they want to save their season.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 21st – 1:00 PM ET
Odds: Indianapolis -6.5
Why The Colts Will Cover
They are the better team, despite their record. This should prove true on a number of fronts. First, Indianapolis has played two very good opponents this season, the Denver Broncos and the Philadelphia Eagles. A lot of teams are going to lose to both the Broncos and Eagles. The Colts now move into the divisional portion of their schedule, and they should be more than capable enough of disposing of the Jaguars. The Colts led the Eagles by 14 points in Monday night’s game but they just couldn’t make a handful of plays late in the game, and they were also hurt by a non-defensive holding call on a late interception thrown by Andrew Luck, one that should never have counted. A flag should have been thrown on that play, and the Colts would have been in position to win instead of the Eagles. Indianapolis didn’t get blown out by Denver, either. The Colts had a chance to tie that game in the final minutes. This team is okay, it just has to be a little more poised in decisive moments.
The bigger point about the difference between these two teams, though, is that while the Colts are solid, the Jaguars are really bad. This team did take a 17-0 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles in week one, but it has been outscored 75-10 ever since. Jacksonville is a toothless team with no offense. It has to get turnovers from an opponent in order to have any realistic chance. If it doesn’t get any help, it will lose big.
Why The Jaguars Will Cover
They are playing an Indianapolis team that’s playing just well enough to lose. The NFL is a league of close games. Everyone knows that parity dominates this league and that it’s hard to carry successes from one year to the next, one game to the next. The margins are so small. Therefore, even though the Colts have played two good teams to start their season, the larger bottom line is that the Colts are not doing what they need to do to win games. Andrew Luck is playing about two to two and a half really good quarters of football in each game he’s played this season. He’s not bad for all four quarters, but if he’s only able to play one really strong half in a game, the Jaguars have to think that if they can pounce on Luck during the periods of the game when he struggles, they can get the two or three turnovers they’ll need to win this game and send the Colts to the basement in the AFC South.
Outlook
If the Jaguars can’t get more than one turnover from the Colts, they’re going to lose big. The prediction here is that the Colts will turn the ball over only once. Indianapolis should roll.
Pick: Colts -6.5
