The Oklahoma City Thunder can secure a 3-1 edge over the San Antonio Spurs when the teams meet in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals on Sunday night. Teams that take a 3-1 lead go on to win the series 95% of the time, according to ESPN Research; only five teams have erased such a deficit in the conference finals or NBA Finals, with the Cleveland Cavaliers the most recent to do so in the 2016 NBA Finals against Golden State.
Oklahoma City carried momentum into Game 4 after a 123-108 victory in Game 3. The Thunder’s bench produced 76 points in that win, the most bench points scored in a conference finals or NBA Finals game since starters were first tracked in 1971.
The Thunder will be shorthanded. Guard Ajay Mitchell is sidelined with a right soleus strain and will not play, and Jalen Williams is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Williams missed Game 3; Mitchell started in his place and logged 17 minutes.
San Antonio entered the game with a clean injury report. Guards De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, both of whom had appeared on previous injury reports, played in Game 3 but combined for just 19 points.
A notable trend in the series has been the Spurs’ performance with star Victor Wembanyama on the floor. San Antonio is plus-21 in 125 minutes with Wembanyama on the court and minus-38 in 29 minutes with him off — the largest negative swing for any player absence on either team. The result of Game 4 will determine whether the Thunder head home with a 3-1 lead or the Spurs knot the series at two games apiece.
