The Dubai Duty Free tennis tournament has a men’s tournament which kicks off next week, but this week, the women have the stage in this outdoor hardcourt event. A number of first-round matches are on the card, and here are three tennis picks for your consideration:
Sara Errani vs. Saisai Zheng
Odds: Errania -156
One of the more disappointing performers on the WTA Tour in 2016 has been Sara Errani, whose ranking is still a very solid 22nd, but who has simply not been able to win many matches. Errani lost in the first round of the Australian Open, and she then lost each of her two Fed Cup matches for Italy a little over a week ago. She has no momentum whatsoever, and her opponent, Saisai Zheng, has definitely been better this season. However, a player as good as Errani is not likely to remain down forever. There’s probably going to be a re-emergence at some point. The lack of match play is a problem, but the good side of it is that Errani has not been physically worn down. She should be comparatively more rested than Zheng, and so if this match can go three sets, the veteran can probably find her legs and her range, using her veteran wiles to outfox the much younger Zheng. It’s a very close call, but unless Errani is about to run on empty for the rest of her career, which is a risky prediction to make, she probably should be able to move through this match.
Pick: Errani in three sets
Roberta Vinci vs. Yaroslava Shvedova
Odds: Vinci -233
This is the kind of match tennis bettors love to contemplate. There is zero question that Vinci is a better player in general and that she’s playing much better tennis right now. Vinci, as the second seed, won the St. Petersburg tournament this past weekend, beating top-seeded Belinda Bencic in the championship match. Vinci, if playing Yaroslava Shvedova under normal conditions, would be picked without a second thought. However, Vinci just won a tournament, and a few days before turning 33, she has to go from Russia to Dubai to start another tournament. This situation begs for a fatigued performance from Vinci, which will open the door for Shvedova to win. It’s a classic case of a superior player facing a rough travel schedule and having to pay the price in the first round of a tournament. When you take a look at the betting odds, you see that the bigger brand name is favored in this spot and that makes sense. Expect a lot of the public to be backing her in this spot and not thinking twice. However, we like the value here with Shvedova for our tennis picks. Take a shot with her to pull the upset while using the full allotment of sets.
Pick: Shvedova in three sets
Barbora Strycova vs. Tsvetana Pironkova
Odds: Pironkova -116
This is the easiest match of the three to pick. Strycova has been better the past few years than she was in the very early stages of her career. She beat Garbine Muguruza at the Australian Open and is in a good frame of mind. She certainly will clean up against lower-ranked players. Pironkova is not only a lower-ranked player; she’s someone who only plays her best at Wimbledon. She’s never been particularly strong on hardcourts. It seems like the power game that’s necessary on the hard surface doesn’t work for her. Big serves and trading on the baseline just doesn’t work out well for her. Last year, she was just 10-14 on the hard surfaces compares to having a .500 or better record on the others. What’s interesting in this spot is that even though she’s not great on this surface, she’s a small favorite in this spot. Everything about this match sets up well for Strycova and the fact that we get her as a slight dog is even more encouraging for our tennis picks. She should be able to win with a routine scoreline.
Pick: Strycova in straight sets
