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Things We Learned From The ATP In The First Week Of The U.S. Open

U.S. Open

The men’s tournament at the U.S. Open is disorderly and crazy and completely unpredictable, and that’s only through five days of play. It is likely to remain wild and become even more eye-popping. History will be made in New York – not just because someone has to win, but because the players who will win in the quarterfinals and semifinals will involve some players who have never gotten this far before. A distinctly new look applies to men’s tennis with Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic all out of the tournament with injuries.

Alexander Zverev And Nick Kyrgios Both Have A Long Way To Go – Especially Kyrgios

The limitations of youth were very much on display in week one of the U.S. Open. The players generally regarded as the future of the sport came crashing down to earth in the first three days of the tournament. Alexander Zverev won two Masters 1000 titles this year, grabbing his first Masters hardcourt title a few weeks ago by beating Roger Federer in the final. He came to New York with a great draw, but he labored through his second-round loss to an inspired Borna Coric. He could not handle his opponent or the conditions on the court or the pressure in his mind. Zverev has gone through many highs and lows this season. The highs were very high, but the lows have been very low… and frequent. Zverev has much to learn in terms of being able to play steady tennis over the course of a full season.

Yet, given his accomplishments, Zverev is still on a good course… just a long-term journey. Kyrgios is far behind him in terms of development and has to make many more strides in 2018 and beyond. Kyrgios has to fully dedicate himself to match fitness, and not casually breezing through tournaments without the focus needed to be an elite player. Kyrgios knows he has to work harder and smarter, but that’s not the same as actually doing what needs to be done.

There Will Be A First-Time Major Finalist (Possibly Two)

The 2014 U.S. Open featured two men who made their first major final, Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic. At this tournament, there will be at least one first-time major finalist. The bottom half of the draw lost its last finalist when Cilic fell to Diego Schwartzman in the third round on Friday. Of the players remaining in the bottom half, only Sam Querrey has made a major semifinal before… and that was at Wimbledon, under two full months ago. In the top half, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have hardly looked convincing, offering the distinct possibility of two first-time major finalists, just like 2014.

Grigor Dimitrov Is The Biggest Casualty Of Week One

The Cincinnati champion had every reason to think that he could build on that result and make a serious run at the title, perhaps by getting a revenge match against Nadal several months after the Australian Open semifinal between the two. Yet, Dimitrov stumbled badly in a second-round loss to Andrey Rublev, a talented player but also a kid who is just beginning to learn the ropes. Dimitrov is too experienced to lose to a younger player unless the younger player is remarkably good. Rublev was solid and composed, but he was not extraordinary. Dimitrov handled the situation poorly. He is lost at sea after blowing a great opportunity to take a big step forward in his career.

Roger Federer Could Be In Big Trouble

The fact is that Federer – while perhaps healthier than at the start of the tournament – is unsure of how to play in a way which gives him confidence in his body. His back spasms are obviously on his mind; otherwise, he simply would not be hitting over 50 unforced errors in each of his first two matches. His mind is not clear. He is worried that he will reaggravate those back problems. He is not focused on hitting the next ball – he is overthinking his shots. If he is healthy, he is not healthy enough to play freely. If he can’t play freely, he won’t last much longer.

The good news is he got by Feliciano Lopez in straight sets on Saturday night. That’s important as he played two long, draining matches to start the tournament and he simply can’t keep that up.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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United States Open

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