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Week 5 Free Betting Pick – Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers (-6) are ready to host the Oakland Raiders in Los Angeles. The opening kickoff for this AFC West game is set for 4:05 p.m. ET and CBS is in line to broadcast the action.

Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview

Oakland is a live dog in this Sunday pairing and is currently getting 6 points. The Raiders are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Chargers are -230. Should one team can create a bunch of points early on it would create a reasonable in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 53.5 points.

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Early action has swayed in favor of both the Raiders and the over. The line originally opened at -7 while the game’s total was initially set at only 51.5.

The Raiders have lost 2.0 units so far and are 2-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2. The Chargers have lost 0.6 units this season. The team is 1-3 ATS and owns an O/U record of 4-0.

The Raiders have gone 1-3 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chargers are 2-2 SU overall and also 0-1 SU against divisional foes.

The Raiders enter after a 45-42 win over Cleveland in Week 4Their defense allowed the Browns to run for 208 yards on 31 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Nick Chubb had a productive day for the Browns in that one with 105 rushing yards and two touchdowns on three attempts. On the offensive side, Derek Carr completed 35-of-58 passes for 437 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Marshawn Lynch (130 rushing yards on 20 attempts) led the ground attack while Jared Cook (eight receptions, 110 yards, two TDs) and Amari Cooper (eight catches, 128 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Los Angeles just picked up a 29-27 win over San Francisco last week. The Bolts defensive secondary allowed the 49ers to air it out for 298 yards and two touchdowns. George Kittle was a bright spot in the defeat for San Francisco, recording 125 yards on six catches. For Los Angeles, Philip Rivers completed 25-of-39 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Melvin Gordon III carved up the opposing defense in the win. In addition to 104 yards on 15 rush attempts, Gordon III also reeled in seven catches for 55 yards and one TD.

Each of these squads has a strikingly similar (60-40 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Raiders have produced 109 rush yards per game (including 92 per game against West opponents) and have three touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bolts are logging 125 rush yards per game (123 in conference) and have two total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Bolts should hold an advantage in terms of RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.2 YPC to opponents. The Raiders have registered 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 5.6 YPC to opponents.

The Raiders offensive scheme has tallied an astonishing 343 yards per contest through the air overall (288 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Bolts have put up 289 pass yards per game (424.0 against AFC foes) and have 11 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Oakland has allowed opponents to run for an average of 139 yards and pass for 273 yards per game. The Los Angeles D has allowed 288.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 109.3 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Raiders have given up an ANY/A of 7.81 to opposing QBs, while the Bolts are allowing an ANY/A of 7.65.

Offensively, Carr is up to 1,028 passing yards this season, and has completed 72 percent of his 130 attempts with five scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 6.53 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Marshawn Lynch (236 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 38 receiving yards on the year), Jordy Nelson (101 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Amari Cooper (253 receiving yards, one TD) have all played big roles of late.

Philip Rivers has completed 82-of-117 passes for 930 yards, nine TDs and two INTs for Los Angeles. His ANY/A stands at 8.18 for the season and 7.31 across his last two games.

We’re thinking the Bolts will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Keenan Allen (238 receiving yards, one TD this season) has stepped up lately, but Melvin Gordon III (196 rush yards, one rush TD, 195 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Austin Ekeler (141 rush yards, 139 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) have really been key factors in the Chargers’ recent offensive gameplans.

Free NFL Tip: Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

SU Winner – Chargers, ATS Winner – Raiders, O/U – Under

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Notes

Team Betting Trends

Oakland was favored by 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under going into it was 44.5. The over cashed and Oakland covered in the 45-42 victory over Cleveland.

As a team, Oakland has produced 3.86363636363636 yards per carry over its past three outings and 4.1 over its last two.

Los Angeles has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.7 over its last two.

The Los Angeles offense has lost three fumbles this season while Oakland has yet to lose any.

Over its last three contests, Oakland is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Los Angeles was favored by 10 points in its previous match and the Over/Under going into it was 46.5. The over cashed and Los Angeles failed to cover in that 29-27 victory over San Francisco.

In its last three matches, Los Angeles is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Raiders offense has created three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Chargers have put up one such play.

Both defenses have allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards. The Oakland defense has given up seven pass plays of 30+ yards while Los Angeles has given up eight such plays.

The Oakland offense has created one rushing play of 20+ yards, while Los Angeles has created six such runs.

The Raiders defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chargers have given up two such runs.

The Los Angeles defensive unit has created eight sacks on the year while Oakland has five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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