Life without Lamar Jackson begins now. Jackson was the most dynamic player in college football over the last two seasons. He burst onto the scene back in 2016, winning the Heisman Trophy by shredding the defenses in the ACC. Although he didn’t get the same attention that he did the season prior, he was arguably even better in 2017. Jackson became the first quarterback ever to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. It will be impossible to replace him, so Louisville will have to get production from other areas.
Louisville 2018 regular season win total
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook
What Happened Last Year
Jackson had to be phenomenal in 2017. The defense was a major problem all year long. Defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon was brought in to replace Todd Grantham, but the defense took a step back from where they were at 2016. They allowed 27.4 PPG and didn’t force the turnovers that they did under Grantham. That led to the team taking a step back.
Louisville still managed to make their fourth straight bowl game under Bobby Petrino. Petrino has won eight or nine games every year at the school, but this might be his toughest test yet.
What Will Change This Year
Not having Jackson is going to be massive. The Cardinals have a promising young quarterback in Jawon Pass, but it would be unfair to burden him with comparisons to Jackson. Pass has been able to learn Petrino’s system for two years, so he won’t be completely lost. However, he has only thrown 33 passes during his collegiate career.
Pass is going to have a ton of help at wide receiver. Louisville’s top three options from last year are back and this unit has plenty of speed. All three of the starting receivers averaged at least 15.5 yards per reception last year.
Once again, the defense is going to be a concern. Brian VanGorder is the new defensive coordinator. VanGorder had initial success at Notre Dame, but his defenses were a disaster in each of his last two seasons with the Irish. He will be looking to rebuild his reputation with the Cardinals.
VanGorder does have talent to work with. Although Jaire Alexander is now in the NFL, Joe Greenard and Michael Boykin are a solid set of defensive ends and should be able to pressure the passer. His defenses thrive on pressure, and these two can create it.
Outlook & Prediction
Louisville is probably going to start the season with a loss. Alabama is a four-touchdown favorite to beat them in Orlando in the opener, but the rest of the non-conference slate is pretty manageable.
Still, there are too many questions surrounding the Cardinals. Replacing Jackson is going to be difficult and no one knows what to expect out of the defense. Petrino is one of the brighter coaches in the game, but it’s tough to expect him to get this team to eight wins once more. The worst case scenario here is likely a push, so take the under.
