What was looking like it would be a matchup of the two undefeated has taken a change of course. On Saturday, the Orlando Apollos (4-0) will visit the Birmingham Iron (3-1) in a matchup of two top teams in the AAF. However, although Orlando has looked crisp in each of their games, there were some questions about whether Birmingham’s previous 3-0 record was as good as it looked, and there will only be more question marks after their 12-11 loss at home last week. Let’s take a closer look at this contest.
Orlando Apollos at Birmingham Iron
Date: Saturday March 9th, 2019 – 2:05 PM ET
Location: Legion Field – Birmingham, Alabama
Orlando Apollos
This is, so far, the most balanced team in the AAF, and no one disputes it. The Apollos scored 40 and 37 points in their first two games, winning once at home and once on the road. Then they won their next two games by scoring only 21 and 20 points, shutting down their opponents.
The AAF has proven to have some fairly shoddy quarterback play but the Apollos might have the best one in the business. Garrett Gilbert has looked excellent so far, passing for 1071 yards. That mark is 274 yards better than the No. 2 in the category. Gilbert has developed a great connection with Charles Johnson who leads the league with 410 receiving yards. Both could be in line for another shot in the NFL if they keep this up.
This will be a tough test for Orlando as Birmingham’s defense has been excellent so far. They have allowed a total of 33 points in four games, an average of 8.3 per contest. That’s easily No. 1 in the AAF.
Birmingham Iron
The Iron have a fantastic defense, as you have seen, but their offense struggled enough to thwart their plans this past weekend. The offense wasted a six-play goal-line stand by the Birmingham defense, which allowed only 12 points. The Iron mustered only 11 points as their offensive line broke down, suffering two key injuries. Luis Perez has been checking the ball down way too often as he leads the league in completions (79) but has just 797 yards to show for it. He’s averaging a paltry 5.7 yards per attempt. The running game is similarly misleading as Trent Richardson leads the league with seven rushing touchdowns but he’s churning out a measly 2.4 yards per carry.
Birmingham has played well on defense but one has to wonder how good this team really is. Looking back on their schedule, they’ve faced some bad or injured teams, and the first decent team they played — San Antonio last week — they lost too. They need a win here to prove that they belong in the same conversation with the best of the best in this league.
Trends
The Apollos continue to win outright, and this past week they also covered the spread, marking the third time in four games they have won against the spread this season. Orlando won 20-11 in Salt Lake against the Stallions. The game went under, the second straight week in which Orlando’s game went under the number. The Apollos are 2-0 on the road and will try to become the first AAF team to go 3-0 on the road this season.
The Iron continue to play great defense, which has led to them being a good under bet. Birmingham has not allowed more than 12 points in any game this season, hitting the under in all four of its games. The Iron are 3-1 after finally losing their first game of the season, 12-11, at home to the San Antonio Commanders. Birmingham lost as a 7.5-point favorite against San Antonio, which was a real sour note for bettors who took laid the points last week.
Apollos vs. Iron Prediction
Apollos 23, Iron 12
