The Salt Lake Stallions and San Diego Fleet, like every other team in the AAF’s Western Conference, have been very inconsistent this season. No one in the West has been able to get on a roll as each of the four teams are 2-2 or worse.
The Stallions are at the back of the back at 1-3, have scored the fewest points in the conference and are tied for the most allowed. If they’re going to turn their season around, it’s going to have to happen quickly when they visit a San Diego team that might be better than its 2-2 record suggests.
Salt Lake Stallions at San Diego Fleet
Date: Saturday, March 9th, 2019 – 8:05 PM ET
Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Salt Lake Stallions
The Stallions split two games with the Arizona Hotshots in which they scored 22 points in the first game and 23 in the second. Salt Lake’s other two games have been terrible offensive displays against Eastern Conference opponents, scoring just nine points in a loss to Birmingham earlier in the season and then managing just 11 at home versus Orlando in a game that was marred by snow.
The good news is that other than the Week 1 blowout loss to Arizona, which they avenged, this team has played very tight games. The loss to Orlando, who is undefeated, was by nine, and the loss to Birmingham, who is the league’s second-best team, was by three.
It’s a tough team to peg because on one hand, it looks like they’ve been close a number of times. On the other hand, their only win came against Arizona after their starting quarterback got hurt. It’s tough to trust this team on the road.
San Diego Fleet
The Fleet lost to the Memphis Express, giving Memphis its first win of the season, 26-23. The key detail there is that Memphis had Zach Mettenberger starting at quarterback in place of the ineffective Christian Hackenberg. If Mettenberger is a lot better than Hackenberg — and most people seem to agree — then Memphis should not be viewed as a bad team. Memphis might be about to go on a winning streak. That should reduce fears about a defensive collapse for San Diego.
The other key takeaway to note is that they were up 20-6 last week before quarterback Philip Nelson fractured his clavicle. Backup Alex Ross threw a 30-yard dart on his second pass of the game but them finished with just 50 yards on his remaining 16 attempts, and added three turnovers in the second half.
San Diego has allowed 15 points or fewer in three of its four games this season and probably should be 3-1. However, with Nelson now out a month, the Fleet could turn back to Mike Bercovici, who Mike Martz tabbed as his starting quarterback at the beginning of the year before benching him for Nelson.
Both teams have question marks but Salt Lake and San Diego are both 0-2 on the road. This game is in San Diego, so that home-field advantage should make a big difference.
Trends
The Stallions, 1-3 straight up, lost 20-11 at home to the league-best Orlando Apollos in Week 4. The game was played in a snowstorm, so Salt Lake figured to have the edge over the warm-weather opponent from Florida, but that was not the case. The game went under the total. Three of Salt Lake’s four games this season have gone under the number. Salt Lake did not cover the spread against Orlando. The Stallions are 2-2 ATS this season.
The Fleet are 2-2 after losing to previously winless Memphis in Week 4, 26-23. That game went over the number, but San Diego went under the number in its first two games of the 2019 season. San Diego did not cover the spread in the loss to Memphis. San Diego is also 2-2 ATS this season.
Stallions vs. Fleet Prediction
Fleet 26, Stallions 15
