The California Bears claw their way over to the Memorial Coliseum to have it out with their in-state rivals the USC Trojans on Thursday, October 27th at 10:30 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on the ESPN Network for your viewing enjoyment. As of now, the Trojans enter the contest as -16.5 point favorites and the over/under is at 75.5 points.
The PAC-12 match-up between the to universities has been dominated to the tune of 86-29-5 by USC. To add insult to injury, the Trojans have won the last 11 games dating back to the 2003 campaign. Last year, USC picked-off Jarod Goff, the number one overall pick in the 2015 draft, twice and held on to win 27-21 in Berkeley.
California (4-3):
Senior quarterback Davis Webb has stepped in for Jarod Goff and the California Bears haven’t missed a beat. In Sonny Dykes offense, Webb has continued to put up mind-boggling numbers in 2016. The new face under center has completed 225 passes for almost 2,600 yards with 27 touchdowns and seven picks.
Let’s face it, the Bears like to pass the ball around during their games. That being said, three tail backs see their fair share of carries in an up-tempo offense that averages over 80 plays a game.
Together, they have toted the rock 200 times for six touchdowns and over 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Also keep in mind, the Bears ran the football for over 300 yards last week in their win against Oregon.
The Bear’s leading receiver Chad Hansen missed last weeks game because of an ankle injury. He is listed as questionable for this contest as well. Davis Webb doesn’t want to see his 59 catches for 770 yards and eight scores on the side lines. If that happens, three other wide outs that have over 900 yards and nine scores will need to step up their game.
Not much can be said for the run defense or the pass defense over in Berkeley. They surely didn’t improve last week, giving up 49 points to the Ducks. This year, their numbers are atrocious, allowing 270 yards a game on the ground. As a result, they also allow teams to average 41 points a game against them (124th).
USC (4-3):
The Trojans started the 2016 campaign 1-3 and have since got on a roll and won three straight. They were beaten in week four by the Utes but since have took down Arizona State, Colorado and the Arizona Wildcats last week 48-14.
A huge reason why, is the emergence of freshman quarterback Sam Darnold. Since he has taken the helm, the youngster has completed 100 passes for over 1,300 yards with 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
It’s no secret, that USC loves to move the ball behind their massive offensive line. Running back Justin Davis leads a trio of runners out of the back field. Davis has a team-high 74 carries for 467 yards and two scores. Sam Darnold also pitches in in the red zone. The USC quarterback has scrambled for another two scores to help out the offense.
Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is back on track and his numbers are starting to reflect that. After last week’s game, he has reeled in 40 catches for over 550 yards and eight touchdowns.
I expect he’ll have another big day against the porous California secondary if he takes to the grid-iron at all. Unfortunately for USC, the stellar athlete is also listed as questionable for this game.
The complete opposite of the California secondary is the Trojans back half. Stand-outs Adoree Jackson and Iman Marshall are starting to make life miserable for opposing offenses.
In a pass happy conference, USC’s secondary gives up only 207 yards a match, which is good for 35th in the nation. Adoree Jackson is a deadly kick returner too. The speedster averages over 30 yards a pop including one to the house just a few weeks back.
Trends and Notes:
The Golden Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
The Trojans are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The Over is 8-1 in the Golden Bears last 9 games overall.
The Under is 5-1 in the Trojans last 6 games overall.
The Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Game Prediction:
Now that the Trojans offense is clicking on all cylinders, they must be pumped-up for a home game against the Cal Bears defense. You, me and everybody else knows they will score at will on the ground and through the air. Throw in Juju Smith if he’s healthy and an opportunistic special teams, and fifty points is a reality.
Davis Webb and the California faithful no exactly what they must do to compete with the Trojans. They must score and score a lot. With the resurgence of the running game, that could bode well for an offense that has seen teams play plenty of pass coverage against them.
There’s no question that USC has the better team on the defensive side of the ball. They probably will find a way to pick off Davis Webb a time or two considering how much he throws it.
It would really help the Bears if their leading receiver also returns to play on Thursday. We think he will, along with JuJu Smith. Count us in over at GET More Sports on the over 75.5 and watch another PAC-12 shoot-out as you fade fast asleep after midnight.
