Perfection died last week and Larry Fitzgerald single-handedly killed it in a way so spectacular I can hardly hold it against him. After one miraculous finish after another keeping my undefeated playoff picks streak intact, it appeared “the run” as it was being called in hushed circles of the pick-o-sphere seemed unstoppable. Two straight Hail Mary completions from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis were going to be just another part of its legacy. Fitzgerald, all by himself, took that away.
But maybe the strive for the perfect run is enough. With traditional hand-made Persian rugs, the crafter will intentionally weave in a mistake on purpose, spoiling the rug’s perfection. The idea is that only God can make something perfect.
So you see what I was doing; playing in the very realms of Gods. And like Icarus so many years ago, I too flew too close to the sun, watched my wings melt and plummeted all the way to the ground as Fitzgerald crossed the goal line on a perfectly executed inside shovel pass.
That game is, as of this writing, my only blemish. Perhaps striving for a perfect 11-0 was asking too much of a mortal man, but my hubris only took a gut punch. It didn’t take a knee. So now I, as those Persian rugmakers, must intentionally weave my mistake into what can now still be a “NEAR-PERFECT RUN.”
Join me on this journey, won’t you, as we pick the AFC and NFC Conference Championships.
New England at Denver (+3)
Of all the predictable match-ups we could have had in the AFC title game, this was the easiest one to make. For the 17th time Tom Brady will face off against Peyton Manning and this is the fifth such meeting in the playoffs. As dominant as Brady and the Patriots cheating machine have been over Manning in the overall competition, the playoffs have actually been a different story. The men are 2-2 against each other and with Manning’s retirement likely on the horizon after this season, this will probably be the rubber match that seals the deal.
The irony of the latest Patriots cheating scandal that Brady has yet to really pay for is the difference in his performance with under-inflated footballs was all in his head. Brady is an excellent quarterback, one of the best to ever play and while SpyGate puts some asterisks on his pre 2007 achievements, since then he’s still been pretty damn great. And since he’s been forced to play with a properly-inflated football, he’s been just as good if not better. The under-inflated football was a placebo. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be punished for breaking the rules to get a competitive advantage. He did it on purpose, thinking it gave him an edge. It would be dishonest now, a year later, to pretend that it did that. It didn’t help him at all, but dammit he should still pay for trying it.
Manning’s playoff choke-jobs are part of his story, whether he or any of his apologists want to admit it or not. Manning has nine one-and-done playoff appearances, the most of any quarterback in NFL history. Not all of them were his fault, but as a guy who watched pretty much every one of his playoff games I can tell you, most of them were his fault. Manning has a losing record in the playoffs for his career (12-13 as of today) and obviously the only way he can retire over .500 is to win this game and Super Bowl 50.
But I want to show you another stat and it’s just as telling. As dominant as the Patriots have been in the playoffs (this is their 10th AFC title game appearance under Belichick/Brady) there’s a fact that stands out like a sore thumb when you look at their playoff history. The dominance is at home. Belichick/Brady have won a total of three playoff road games in 15 seasons. They’re 3-3 in the postseason on the road and have only won one AFC title game on the road in that time, a victory over the Kordell Stewart-led Pittsburgh Steelers in 2001. In fact, the Stewart Steelers account for two of their road wins. The other came in San Diego against Phillip Rivers who was playing with a torn ACL. Two of their three road losses came against teams quarterbacked by Peyton Manning (the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and the 2012 Broncos).
I think Manning’s story is about to wrap up. Just not yet. Broncos 23, Patriots 20
Arizona at Carolina (-3)
This game represents the first-ever match-up of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks in a conference title game. That’s pretty much all that’s interesting about this quarterback battle. The Panthers have the edge on defense and Carson Palmer is dying to throw this game away. If the Panthers can avoid the butterfingers, this one may not be close. There’s only so much Larry Fitzgerald can do.
Add to that a storm people have already called Snowzilla hitting the east coast, the Cardinals are going to have to find a way to throw and catch the ball in slick, cold and snowy weather. Something they just aren’t built for. The Panthers, on the other hand, basically drive a tank onto the field on offense and point it at you. Look at it this way. If neither of these teams can throw the ball, which one would you go with? Yeah, me too.
When NFL execs dream at night, they have to get up and change the sheets at the thought of a Denver vs Carolina Super Bowl 50. They’re going to need a new mattress after Sunday. Panthers 24, Cardinals 16
Last week
Straight up: 3-1
Against the spread: 3-1
Playoffs
Straight up: 7-1
Against the spread: 5-3
Overall
Straight up: 148-116
Against the spread: 124-140
