In a battle of two teams that prefer to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Turner Gill and the Liberty Flames (+29) are gearing up to pay a visit to the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network has the TV rights.
Liberty Flames vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
Liberty is the noticeable underdog here and is currently receiving 29 points from bookmakers. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points, and some good live betting opportunities may exist during this showdown.
The Flames are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.6 units this season. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-3. The Tigers have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors in 2018, losing 13.0 units. They’re 4-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-7.
The Flames are 4-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Tigers are 6-4 SU.
The Flames lost to Virginia 45-24 in a thumping where the passing game wasn’t where it needed to be as Stephen Calvert completed only 15 passes on 27 attempts for 149 yards and three interceptions. Frankie Hickson (93 rushing yards on 26 attempts, two TDs) and Peytton Pickett (117 yards on 17 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while DJ Stubbs (three receptions, 16 yards) and B.J. Farrow (three catches, 51 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Auburn just lost a 27-10 game to Georgia. The defense let the Bulldogs rush for 303 yards on 46 attempts, along with one rushing TD. D’Andre Swift torched the defense, putting up 186 rushing yards and a score on 17 attempts, along with 43 yards on four catches for Georgia. For Auburn, Jarrett Stidham completed 24-of-36 passes for 163 yards. JaTarvious Whitlow (26 yards on nine rush attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat while Ryan Davis (13 receptions, 72 yards) and Seth Williams (three catches, 38 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Liberty has run the ball on 50.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Auburn has an overall rush percentage of 53.8 percent. The Flames have run for 159 yards/game and have 25 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Tigers are totaling 150 rushing yards per game and have 18 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Tigers should own the edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has logged 4.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Flames have recorded 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 5.3 YPC to opponents.
The Flames offense has tallied 304 yards per game through the air overall and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have put up 217 pass yards per outing and have 12 total pass scores.
Defensively, Liberty has allowed opponents to run for an average of 236 yards and pass for 273 yards per game. The Auburn defense has allowed 221.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 151.0 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.96 to opponents, while the Flames have given up a 7.28 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Calvert is up to 2,405 yards this year, and has completed 179-of-314 attempts with 16 scores through the air and 10 interceptions. He has a 6.60 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.09 over the last two games.
Jarrett Stidham has connected on 166-of-271 passes for 1,877 yards, eight TDs and four INTs for Auburn. His ANY/A stands at 6.03 for the year and 6.24 over his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Liberty Flames at Auburn Tigers
SU Winner – Auburn, ATS Winner – Liberty, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
Auburn has lost eight fumbles this season while Liberty has lost four.
The Auburn defensive unit has recorded 31 sacks on the year while Liberty has just 21.
As a team, Liberty has rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt across its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
Auburn has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.0 over its past two.
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