The Memphis Grizzlies held their serve and managed to turn a seemingly lopsided series into a tight one, and they now travel to San Antonio and hope to pull an upset in the next game against the Spurs, one that would give them a major chance to advance to the Western Conference semifinals. But let’s not get so far ahead as the Grizzlies barely got to this point.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs Game 5
LINE: San Antonio -10 (-105); moneyline -500
Total: 186.5 points (+100 over, -108 under)
Memphis win a thriller, even the series
The Memphis Grizzlies played their hearts out and thoroughly deserved the 110:108 overtime win over the Spurs on Saturday eve. It was a game of runs that could have gone either way, but the Grizzlies prevailed as Marc Gasol hit a running floater with about a second left in the overtime to close the scoring.
Gasol hit the game winner but it was point guard Mike Conley doing his best to keep up with Leonard and help them even the series. Conley set a franchise postseason record with 35 points in the Game 4 triumph and is averaging 24 points and 7.8 assists in the series. After a slow start that had them fall down into an early 10-point hole, Conley put his hands on the game an guided the Grizzlies into a superb second quarter.
In fact, this was the only period Memphis won in regulation, as they enjoyed 10 fast break points and 3 triples from Carter to open up a 55-51 lead at the half. Third quarter was sloppy and the score was close throughout, but better execution to start the final quarter led to a 10 points Memphis lead they couldn’t protect. During the overtime, both teams wrestled for the lead and we witnessed clutch shooting on both sides.
Conley was the Memphis star for the night. He had 35 points, 8 assists and 9 rebounds. When Memphis needed him the most, he made a clutch floater to send the game into overtime, but it was his first half play that gave them the chance to keep it close. The Grizzlies struggled with turnovers (they had 23), but managed to make up for it in other aspects.
They dominated the boards 51-37 and were able to score in transition. They also scored more threes than the Spurs, for the first time in the series. Bench players stepped up, as Harrison, Daniels and Green all being big factors in the Memphis win, so it’s going to give them more confidence going into the next game.
Overall the Memphis Grizzlies shot 38-of-82 from the field and 12-of-27 from deep, also missing just two of the 24 freebies for the best shooting performance in weeks. They had problems guarding Leonard, but did a solid job on the rest of the Spurs shooters, staying connected on them on most of their tries.
Place: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Date/Time: Tuesday April 25th, 2017. 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: NBATV
Leonard’s performance not enough for the Spurs
Kawhi Leonard played like a true MVP on Saturday, scoring 43 points (most of them of the clutch variety), grabbed 8 rebounds and had 6 steals for the game. The scary thing for the Spurs is that it wasn’t enough for the win. The Spurs did win during Leonard’s on-court time (and convincingly, by 18 points), but the periods he sat were bad as they became over reliant on his magic. He set a new playoff career high for the third time in this series, going 7-of-10 from 3-point range, while the rest of the San Antonio squad shot a combined 2-of-20 from beyond the arc in the loss.
Green was 0-of-6, Mills 1-of-4 and Ginobili 0-of-4 as the shooting specialists failed miserably. The Spurs did make a change to the starting lineup, dropping Dedmon and replacing him with Lee, who was the worst Spurs player by plus/minus of -15. He and Aldridge combined for just 7 rebounds. Aldridge at least contributed with 13 points.
Tony Parker was back again, scoring 22 points and dishing out 5 assists, out of just 16 Spurs total assists, again a disappointing number. The bench, the league’s best during the regular season, got outscored by Memphis’ bench 24-17. Manu Ginobili still has yet to score in the series. The Spurs need to find a way to match the Grizzlies’ renewed vitality, and that starts with Aldridge, Green and the bench playing much better than they have over the past two games.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Trends & Prediction
The Memphis Grizzlies won two games as a home underdog and both of the games went to over (it would have counted as an over even if the overtime points would be disregarded). That brings up the Grizzlies to a 43-43 ATS record, and 41-42-3 O/U record. They don’t fare as well away from home, where they are 20-23 against the spread, as they give up more points. It brings their overs total up – they are 24-18 against the total line on the road.
The San Antonio Spurs fell to a 43-41-2 record against the spread, and to just 7-13 against their division. Their division rivals are the ones most familiar to their game, and given the Spurs struggles to create anything aside of Leonard, it clearly translates to Grizzlies staying more competitive than they should be. As for the totals are concerned, the Spurs are 46-38 for the season and 22-19 at the AT&T Center. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the two teams in San Antonio.
Home court obviously played a huge role in this series so far, and the Spurs are likely to be reinvigorated by the sight of their fans. The books are offering the home team as a 10-point favorite, same as in the first two game they managed to cover. The Memphis are much more confident coming into the game and it should keep it closer that the prior two times, and I believe the value is on their side. You should ask for a +10 +100 odds to make a wager. Total is down as the stakes are raised, and gives absolutely no chance to bet either side. I’ve set it up at 187 myself, so just move on.
My Pick: Memphis +10 (-102)
Total: Pass
