NCAAF Picks: For Florida Gators head coach Will Muschamp last week’s sluggish triple overtime win over Kentucky was a clear sign that all is not well and that their offensive struggles of the past four seasons are not close to being fixed. The Alabama Crimson Tide are undefeated and ranked third in the nation but are also addressing offensive concerns at the QB position as a clear cut starter is yet to emerge.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will host the Florida Gators at Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday with coverage on CBS starting at 3:30 PM ET. Alabama opened as a 14 point favorite. Please check BetDSI for the latest NCAAF odds.
Gators Escape Cat Claws
Florida is 2-0 straight up and 1-1 against the spread with a 2-0 mark over the total. The Gators are coming off a 36-30 home win over Kentucky in a game that looked more like basketball as Florida outgained UK 532-450. While the win was a relief, the offense still looks sluggish and the defense not as stout as previous Muschamp teams, as he remains sitting on one of the hottest seats in the land.
Tide of Overlays Roll Betting Public
Alabama is 3-0 straight up but 0-3 against the spread as a classic “name brand” and public betting commodity. The Tide is coming off a 52-12 home win over Southern Miss as ridiculous 47 point chalks. The Bama defense ranks ninth nationally but the passing offense ranks 33rd. Quarterback Blake Sims (176.6 QB rating) has outplayed Jacob Coker (142.4) but both are getting plenty of snaps. Sims, TJ Yeldon, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake, and Tyren Jones are all over 5.8 yards per rush.
Matchup and Pick
Despite their popularity as an ultimate “name brand” power team with the betting public Alabama has been able to maintain good betting value at home with six payouts in their last 10 home games as just two out of their last six home games have gone under the total. Even with their struggles of last season the Florida Gators have been a solid board value on the road with seven payouts in their last 11 away games as nine out of their last 13 away games have gone under the total. Alabama has had firm control of the cashier’s cage with Florida as the Crimson Tide has covered seven out of their last eight games with the Gators as four out of the last seven games between the Tide and Gators have gone under the total. Based on their head to head dominance over Florida we’ll call for Alabama and under the total in this SEC interdivisional showdown.
