NFL Analysis: On the surface, things would appear fine for the Denver Broncos as they are 2-1 straight up and tied for first place with the San Diego Chargers in the AFC West. But a deeper look reveals a team that is far too dependent upon Manning and in danger of not getting back to the Super Bowl because of their one dimensional nature. A near miss comeback in a 26-20 overtime loss at the Seattle Seahawks was somewhat misleading as Denver was outgained 384 to 332 and the Broncos trailed 17-3 heading into the fourth quarter. The question heading out of their bye week is whether Denver can shore up its defense and get a ground game going.
Denver was a +435 choice at BetDSI to win the Super Bowl and was a +160 pick to win the AFC Championship.
Manning Up on Offense
The Broncos are 2-1 straight up, 0-3 against the spread, and 1-2 under the total. Denver’s offense is totally dependent upon Manning as he has a 108.5 QB rating with an 8-1 TD-INT ratio. The problem is that Manning is having to carry far too much of the load as the Denver ground attack ranks 28th overall as top ball carrier Montee Ball is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.
Broncos Busted on Defense
Denver ranked 30th overall in the NFL for total defense and 31st against the pass while ranking a pedestrian 16th for points allowed. When you combine the sub-par defense with the lack of a reliable ground game you have a team that is staring playoff failure right in the eyeball as Manning’s poor post season record is well documented and having to depend on him in the playoffs is iffy at best.
Coming Up and Our Assessment
Denver has a tough home game against the Arizona Cardinals on October 5 followed by a road game at the New York Jets on October 12. The Broncos are also a team that could continue to lack betting value as they are a “name brand” team and Manning is well regarded for his regular season numbers. The problem is that the defense is susceptible to allowing opponents into the cashier’s cage through the back door. This team is labeled handle with care from a handicapping perspective.
