The Miami Dolphins are very thankful to be one year removed from a season that nearly swallowed them whole. The Jonathan Martin-Richie Incognito controversy put a lot of jobs in jeopardy, but head coach Joe Philbin has survived and managed to stay in the business as an NFL head coach, not an obscure position coach with another franchise. With this second chance, can Philbin get a different team and coaching staff to make the playoffs, something that barely eluded this team in 2013?
Strengths
The Dolphins start with defense, a defense that was good enough to contain the New England Patriots’ passing game last December in the kind of win that will often enable a young team to take the next step and move to the playoffs. When Miami defeated New England thanks to a late stand from its defense, it became apparent that Miami had the athletes in the secondary to stick with other passing games in the league. The Dolphins’ pass defense was similarly strong in wins over the San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Indianapolis Colts, all teams that made the playoffs. Miami, as you can see, beat a lot of good teams last season. The defense was primarily responsible for that. Miami was not only good against the pass. Another specific strength of the defense was that it was excellent inside its own 30. The Dolphins were not overwhelmingly good, but when opposing offenses got inside the 30 or the red zone, Miami was usually able to force field goal attempts. This happened in an early-season win over the Atlanta Falcons as well as in the other cases just referred to. If the defense is as good in 2014 as it was in 2013, the Dolphins will have another chance to make the playoffs.
Weaknesses
The offense is what held this team back at times in 2013, often enough to keep the Dolphins out of the playoffs. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was great against New England and impressive in Miami’s fast start to the season in September, but in October and then in the final two games of the season, Tannehill fell apart. He lost confidence and also revealed the measure of his youthfulness. A second-year player last season, Tannehill produced spurts of quality, but was not able to stitch together a full season of good play. In the close to the season against Buffalo and the New York Jets, the Dolphins scored a grand total of just seven points. The two miserable performances undid so much of the good work Tannehill put in for most of the first 14 games of the season. This offense wasn’t always bad, but it definitely failed the team when it mattered most. That’s what Miami will hope to correct this fall.
Schedule
The Dolphins have a very good schedule. It’s not quite great, because the team does have to play the AFC West in full. Winning at Denver will be hugely difficult. A big key will be to sweep home games against Kansas City and San Diego. If the Dolphins can do that, they’ll likely be on their way to the playoffs. In the NFC, the Dolphins play the North. They get Green Bay and Minnesota at home and must travel to Detroit and Chicago. If they can beat Green Bay and Minnesota while splitting the Chicago-Detroit pair, they would take another step to January. All in all, Miami needs to go 4-2 in the AFC East, 3-1 against the AFC West, and 2-2 against the NFC North. If the Dolphins can get nine wins from those games, a road trip to Jacksonville and a home game against Baltimore should get at least one more win, if not two.
Outlook
The schedule really favors Miami this season. The Dolphins just need a little more stability on offense in order to reach the 10-win mark. At the very least, eight wins should not be a problem for this team. If you’re going to go over or under, over is the right play.
Pick: Over 8
