The defense/special teams position in NFL fantasy remains a tricky one to predict. Some players try to grab a top-three or five defense early in the draft, while others prefer to take a streaming approach. While anyone who picked the Jacksonville Jaguars or Baltimore Ravens were likely happy with their selection, some of the top-ranked defenses going into the 2017 NFL season disappointed.
There are plenty of reasons why a defense struggles. From injuries to inept offenses, the most significant busts on defense just could not overcome the shortcomings and challenges they faced. Some of these defenses may look much better in 2018, while others may slip from the top-tier into that stream/play the matchup category.
Houston Texans
Coming into the season as the third-ranked defense on Yahoo, the Houston Texans were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball this season. They finished the year with just 83.00 fantasy points, good enough to finish 28 out of 32 defenses this season. The Texans could not stop teams from scoring points, giving up the most points in the NFL this season. If J.J. Watt is healthy for the start of next season, they should turn things around enough to, at least be an option to stream in fantasy.
New York Giants
After fielding one of the best defenses in 2016, the New York Giants crashed down to Earth in 2017. Between players fighting amongst themselves, injuries and a mid-season coach firing, the Giants were a complete mess in 2017. In 11 of the Giants 16 games this season, the Giants defense posted 5.00 fantasy points or less. The Giants finished with just 27 sacks in 2017, third fewest in the NFL. For a defense, many thought could get the Giants back to the playoffs, and maybe even the Super Bowl, 2017 was a huge letdown.
Denver Broncos
While the Denver Broncos did not entirely flame out like the Texans and Giants, their defense took a step back in 2017. Denver was the top-ranked defense on Yahoo going into the 2017 NFL season. They ended the year 19th overall. The Broncos had a nine-game stretch in the middle of the season, where they failed to score double-digit fantasy points. The Broncos need better production from their offense, to limit short fields and overall help the defense. Depending on how the Broncos offseason plays out will determine whether the Broncos are an elite fantasy defense in 2018.
Minnesota Vikings
As great as the Minnesota Vikings’ defense actually played in 2017, they were not a stud in fantasy. The Vikings allowed the fewest points, the second fewest rushing and passing yards in 2017. However, they were only the 14th best defense in terms of fantasy points. While that seems like a wide discrepancy, the numbers made it clear.
Their biggest fantasy weaknesses were lack of turnovers and defensive touchdowns. Seven of the top eight fantasy defenses scored four or more defensive/special teams touchdowns while the Vikings had just one. The Vikings defense also scored 32 of their 117 fantasy points in Week 15 and Week 16. By that point, many people had moved on from Minnesota, likely streaming defenses instead. When you break that down, that means they averaged just over six points per game in their other 14 games. That’s a lot less than most people would expect from this unit.
The Vikings are still worth a spot on a fantasy roster (as a later pick), but they do not have the personnel of some of the better fantasy defenses.
Arizona Cardinals
Excluding a 24.00 point fantasy performance in Week 16 against the New York Giants (which accounted for 21.4% of the Cardinals fantasy points in 2017), the Arizona Cardinals were a very ho-hum fantasy defense in 2017. The Cardinals seven times failed to score 5.00 fantasy points, and outside of that Giants game, they never scored more than 13.00 points in a week. The Cardinals are entering a transitional phase, as they bring in a new coach and search for a new quarterback. Looking forward to 2018, they should rank in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy defenses or much lower than their sixth overall ranking entering 2017.
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