The NFL season reaches its home stretch, the sprint to the finish. The Chargers and Chiefs will battle for the AFC West title and home-field advantage in the playoffs. There are also a number of other big games with playoff implications, some of which will be discussed in our NFL Week 15 Parlay Free Pick.
The Favorite
Los Angeles Chargers at Kanas City Chiefs
Odds: Chiefs -3.5
The Chiefs are 4-0 in the AFC West, the Chargers only 2-2. The Chargers are 5-1 on the road, but the Chiefs are 6-0 at home. Los Angeles has been dominant at times this season, but the Chiefs have been more consistent. Kansas City was particularly resilient in coming back from a late seven-point deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens in overtime. That kind of win should give the Chiefs enormous confidence for this home game. Los Angeles, on the other hand, barely got by the mediocre Cincinnati Bengals, who were without Andy Dalton this past weekend. The Chargers are not playing as well as the Chiefs and now have to travel to the Midwest and play a game in the cold, at night, on short rest. The Chiefs have to like their position, and bettors should do the same.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Week 15 Odds
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
The Underdog
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Odds: Vikings -8
The Vikings, in six home games thus far this season, are playing very close to even-steven. They have scored only nine more points than their opponents, 125-116. The Vikings haven’t scored more than 27 points in any of those six home games and their offense has clearly underperformed this season. Very few Minnesota games have gone smoothly, the one real exception being a 37-17 win at the New York Jets on October 21. The Dolphins are coming off one of the most thrilling NFL wins of the year and will be emboldened by that win, because it keeps them in the playoff picture instead of essentially ending their season. The Dolphins’ offense was solid if not spectacular against the Patriots and as long as they play close to their capabilities, the Dolphins will have a great chance to win this game late and own an excellent chance of covering the number.
Pick: Dolphins +8
The Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens
Odds: 47
The Bucs scored just 14 points in their most recent home game. They have improbably posted a game earlier this season, against the Washington Redskins, in which they collected 500 yards but scored only three points. Their offense has clearly lost punch and momentum as the season has gone along.
The Ravens are at home, pursuing a playoff berth, and played an excellent defensive game against the Kansas City Chiefs this past weekend. They became one of the few teams this year to hold the Chiefs’ offense under 30 points. They controlled the ball and kept Patrick Mahomes off the field. The Baltimore offense isn’t high-powered and likes to play ball control. Everything about this game sets up the under quite well.
Pick: Under 47
The Point Spread
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
Odds: Giants -2.5
A lot of people will look at the Titans’ 2-5 road record and go to the surging Giants, who have been playing well of late, but the Giants are only 2-4 at home and have hardly earned the benefit of the doubt. They also played the cratering Washington Redskins this past week. Washington was quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez, who is well past his expiration date as a competent NFL signal-caller. The Giants barely defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home in their recent stretch of winning football. When they defeated the Chicago Bears – a good win, to be sure – they still benefited from the Bears playing Chase Daniel in place of Mitchell Trubisky.
Tennessee is playing for more in this game, as a team which has a realistic shot at the playoffs. The Titans are also entering this game after having played a Thursday game. This means three days more rest than the Giants. One also needs to say that the Titans’ last truly bad road loss was at Buffalo on October 7. The Titans’ last three road losses – to the Cowboys, Colts and Texans – are to teams which are either going to be in the playoffs or are in the playoff hunt, all above .500.
Tennessee is better value here than you might think.
Pick: Titans +2.5
