The best rivalry in college basketball will see another iteration on Wednesday night when the No. 1 ranked Duke Blue Devils host the North Carolina Tar Heels. Duke has been the best team in the nation all year, and the Blue Devils will finally reclaim the top spot in the polls after Tennessee’s loss to Kentucky over the weekend. They are prohibitive favorites to win the National Championship at this point, but these two teams have a habit of playing spoiler against one another.
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Duke has only lost once at full strength this year. The Blue Devils were topped by Gonzaga in a classic back in late November, and their only other loss came against Syracuse when Tre Jones was injured and Zion Williamson wasn’t 100 percent. They have largely dominated other teams, and they are ranked number one with the third-best offense and fourth-best defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy.
It’s not hard to see why Duke has been so great. The Blue Devils signed the best recruiting class in the country, and they have lived up to their billing. Williamson is an athletic freak that will be the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft barring injury. RJ Barrett was the No. 1 recruit in the country, and he will likely be a Top 10 pick in this year’s NBA Draft as well. Tre Jones is a lockdown defender that can contribute on the offensive end too, and Cam Reddish is the team’s third-leading scorer as a freshman.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is led by its seniors. Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye are the team’s two leaders, and they have been pretty good this year. Johnson is the team’s leading scorer, and he has been a lights out three-point shooter, while Maye is averaging close to a double-double per game.
Defense has been a bit of an issue for the Tar Heels though. North Carolina has had some major defensive lapses and that has cost them. Even though UNC is ranked No. 20 in adjusted defense according to Pomeroy, their inability to defend against good teams has been noticeable — they’ve allowed 80 or more points in four of their five losses.
As for a side in this game, I’ll take Duke. I expect the Blue Devils to be an eight- to nine-point favorite, and I think they will win by double digits. Williamson should dominate Maye in the paint. Maye has had a really tough time playing against physical big men (see the Texas game), and Williamson is unlike any big men we have seen in recent memory. A healthy Jones will limit Johnson’s ability to create and score from the perimeter, and Barrett could go off too.
Even though rivalry games tend to be close, this game won’t be. Don’t get caught up buying into the ESPN hype that North Carolina can keep it competitive, or else you’re going to be looking silly.
