The last few seasons have not gone as well for the Indianapolis Colts as they had hoped, thanks in large part to Andrew Luck’s injuries. But while the Colts’ quarterbacks struggled, Frank Gore quietly finished each of his three seasons in Indy as a top-20 fantasy running back. Now that Gore is back home in Miami, someone will have to take over. Among the contenders is NC State’s Nyheim Hines, whom the Colts selected with the fourth pick in the fourth round.
RT and welcome RB Nyheim Hines to the family!#ColtsDraft | @TheNyNy7 pic.twitter.com/Ej9qeYuzDq
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) April 28, 2018
Hines broke out in his third and final year in Raleigh, rushing for 1,040 yards on 181 carries (5.7 yards per carry). But it was his performance at the combine that led to his draft position. Whether he succeeds or fails at the next level will depend on how adept he is at building on his natural athleticism.
Reasons to Get Excited
Speed
Hines ran the 40 in 4.38 seconds, making him the fastest running back at the combine. Only two offensive players, Jacksonville’s D.J. Chark and Green Bay’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, were faster than Hines. It’s no surprise that Hines was also an All-American for NC State’s track team. That alone makes him a decent bet in GPP and best ball leagues.
Situation
There is no clear-cut replacement for Gore on the roster. Most are penciling Marlon Mack in for the starting job, but he wasn’t very efficient with his carries and isn’t a prototypical every-down back. Hines is about as likely to get as many touches as Mack but he’ll be considerably cheaper. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Mack is a mid-seventh-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues while Hines is going undrafted.
Indy’s Reinforcements
As always, there is optimism that Luck will be back and fully healthy for Week 1. Everyone in the offense benefits if that’s the case. But even if his never-ending shoulder injury lingers a bit longer, the Colts at least added Quenton Nelson in the first round. Nelson was arguably the top-rated player in this class and could have gone first overall if he played a different position. Returns to health for center Ryan Kelly and guard Jack Mewhort would also boost Indy’s running game.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
One-trick Pony
Hines has the speed, but it’s his best quality by far. He’s more of an athlete than a running back at this point and players like that tend to struggle. The running backs who ran sub-4.40 40-yard dashes in the last five years: T.J. Logan, Keith Marshall, Dri Archer, De’Anthony Thomas, Onterio McCalebb and Knile Davis. There have not been many fantasy points to be had from that group.
Change-of-Pace Back
Since Hines lacks ideal size and is more of a speedster, it’s unlikely he’ll be used as an every-down back even if there are injuries. The case could be made that Robert Turbin or (gulp) Christine Michael would get starter touches before Hines. That could make Hines more of a poor man’s Darren Sproles until he has more experience.
Luck Uncertainty
The Colts are saying Luck is on schedule, but we’ve all heard that before. Luck missed all of 2017 and the Colts were 31st in total offense and 30th in points scored. You don’t want an auxiliary piece on a bad offense, and that’s probably what the Colts will have if Luck continues to sit.
Conclusion
What you think of Hines likely has more to do with what you think of Marlon Mack and Indy’s offense as a whole. If things break his way, Hines is looking at a decent year that would have him in flex consideration. If not, he’ll find a permanent home on the waiver wire.
I, for one, tend to believe more in the latter scenario. But once you’re drafting in the RB5 to RB6 range, Hines is as good of a gamble as anyone else available. And, as mentioned, he’ll be in weekly consideration in DFS and best ball leagues if you’re into those.
