In this article, we have prepared for you an in-depth analysis of the opening duel of the German Bundesliga Round 9 that will take place on Friday in Gelsenkirchen between home team, Schalke 04 and guests from Mainz.
Two teams that are on the rise of the form lately will square off at Veltins Arena in Gelsenkirchen this Friday as part of the German Bundesliga week 9 opening showdown. The Miners are coming off from a valuable road win over Hertha Berlin last week (0:2) and extending the winning streak at home could represent a big leapfrog for the team in the league table.
On the other side, the Mainz team managed to string together three undefeated games as they’ve earned seven total points in last three rounds, oppose to only three points in first five rounds. All this indicates a very exciting matchup but our goal here doesn’t actually depends on the quality of the team’s play but on the ability to predict possible outcomes in order to raise you some funds so let’s take a closer look.
Schalke 04 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05
Three-Way: 1: Schalke 04 -108; X: +275 Draw; Mainz 05 +394
Spread -0.5: Schalke 04 -119; Mainz 05 +112
Total +2.5: Over +106; Under -111
SCHALKE 04
After stringing three winless games prior to the international break, the team from Gelsenkirchen regrouped and remedied certain weak spots thus resulting in a last week’s win over Hertha at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin. Hertha’s winger Genki Haraguchi’s sent off one minute before the break also went in favor of the Schalke 04 team who managed to take the full prey after Goretzka’s and Burgstaller’s goals in the second half.
Currently, they rank at the No. 6 spot in the league table with 13 points earned in eight games and a 4-1-3 record. Team scores 1.25 and concede 1.13 goals per duel (10-9 goal difference) and 38% of their matches had over 2.5 goals in total. At home, they score 1.50 and concede 1.25 goals per game (6-5 goal difference) and every home soil game so far had over 1.5 goals in total. They’ve also managed to score at least one goal in both halves in 50% of their home games (38% of their total matches) and they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in 25% of their total games. Both teams scored in two of four games at Veltins Arena so far.
When it comes to the tactics, coach Tedesco prefers the 5-3-2 scheme. Although a bit conservative and defensive-based, it seems to be working solidly on the pitch as he instructs certain deviations from classic 5-3-2 during the course of the game. Stambouli, Naldo, and Kehrer most often start at the centre-back positions while Caliguri on the right and Oczipka on the left, operate as backs too with certain down-the-flank assignments. Goretzka, Meyer, and Harit hold the middle part of the field while Di Santo and Burgstaller have mostly attacking assignments. Leon Goretzka tops the team in scoring with three goals so far while Nabil Bentaleb and Guido Burgstaller have two each in their accounts. Leading assister is Amine Harit with two while passing segment belongs to defender Thilo Kehrer with 346 total passes. Goalie Ralf Fahrmann has 21 saves and two clean-sheet games so far.
Pablo Insua’s (rib) and Donis Avdijaj’s (ankle) status is unknown while Matija Nastasic (ankle), Weston McKennie (thigh) and Luke Hemmerich (foot) are all listed as day to day.
FSV MAINZ 05
We can officially say that the period of poor form is behind the Mainz team as they are undefeated in last three rounds. With two consecutive wins at home against Hertha Berlin (1:0) and Hamburger SV (3:2) and a road draw in Wolfsburg (1:1), they’ve got themselves out of the danger zone and now they can continue to raise their form without of the additional pressure. In a last week’s win over HSV, Alexandru Maxim, Stefan Bell, and Danny Latza were the scorers while Walace and Sejad Salihovic scored for the guests.
The only aspect that needs to be addressed is the performance on the road because they have only one point earned when visiting so far and they’ll have the chance to fix that on Friday. They currently rank at the No. 10 spot in the league table with 10 points after eight games and a 3-1-4 record. Their total goal difference is 10-13 (score 1.25 and concede 1.63 goals per match) but they’ve managed to score only one goal on the road so far while conceding 6. The team that had the most preferable schedule so far (five home games and three road games in first eight rounds) have conceded at least one goal in both halves in 38% of their total matches while they’ve scored at least one goal in both halves in two of those eight total duels. There were over 3.5 goals in total in 33% of the Mainz’s road games, and in 50% of their total matches, both teams scored.
In the tactics department, Coach Sandro Schwarz prefers the 4-2-3-1 scheme with Adler between the bars and Brosniski, Diallo, Bell, and Donati in the defensive line. Latza and Gbamin mostly start at the defensive midfielder positions while De Blasis, Maxim and Oztunali operate at the middle of the field and in front of the opponents’ penalty box. Quaison is the lone true striker in this scheme that provides solid results lately. Forward Yoshinori Muto tops the team in scoring with three goals while Danny Latza has two in his account. Levin Oztunali has collected team-high four assists while Daniel Brosinski has two. Brosinski and Gulio Donati are the most successful passers with 261 and 260 total passes. Goalkeeper Rene Adler has 19 saves and one clean-sheet game so far.
Karim Onisiwo has reportedly suffered a shoulder injury last week and his status is unknown while Alexander Hack (muscle), Niko Bungert (thigh) and Aaron Seydel (Knee) are listed as day to day. Gaetan Bussman (groin) is back in training.
Schalke 04 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 – Match Prediction
Both last season matchups went Schalke‘s way as Mainz team didn’t score a goal in those two duels (3:0 in Gelsenkirchen, 0:1 in Mainz). Last time the Reds managed to pass by undefeated at Veltins Arena was in February 2014 (0:0 draw) while the last win on the road against Schalke occurred in May 2011 (1:3 victory). As stated above, both teams are in the uprise of the form but a slight advantage still goes to the home squad that seems to be looking in the back of the unpredictability and inconsistency that was inherent to the them last season. I also doubt that there will be more than 2.5 goals in total but that will be my additional pick. For those that are not scared to go for a final result, 2:0 in the advantage of the home team makes the most sense.
My pick: Schalke 04 (-108)
Additional Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-111)
