We open the 2016-17 season just how we ended the last one, with the Denver Broncos taking on the Carolina Panthers. This time it’s opening night on Thursday Night Football and both these teams, by my account, are on starkly different trajectories this year.
First off, let’s review what’s at stake. And, no, I’m not talking about this game. I’m talking about me. Last year I had a playoff picks run for the ages. I was one Larry Fitzgerald miracle play away from a perfect 11-0 straight-up run. As it was, I went 10-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread. It really saved the year for me. My final straight up games record was a solid 151-116. My spread record was still abysmal at 127-140 but I don’t think I was alone in that. Everyone took a bath on the spread last year.
I’m still the guy that went 174-92-1 just three years ago. He’s still in there and after making a playoff appearance last season, he’s ready for a regular season return. It all starts tonight.
The game: Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3)
The History
The two teams have met just five times, with the Broncos winning four of them including Super Bowl 50, 24-10, last February. Only one game of the five has even been close, with the 2004 Jake Plummer-led Broncos beating the Jake Delhomme-led Panthers 20-17.
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is 0-2 against the Broncos, losing 36-14 at Charlotte, N.C. in 2012 and 24-10 in Super Bowl 50.
The Panthers on Offense
As good as Carolina was in 2015 on offense, they should be even better this season. Newton has his best wide receiver back in Kelvin Benjamin and his steady first down and red zone threat in tight end Greg Olsen. While Benjamin was sidelined with a knee injury Newton helped turn Tedd Ginn Jr. into an actual NFL wideout and got the most of out Devin Funchess’ rookie season. At running back the Panthers have a solid three-deep, led by Jonathan Stewart. Fozzy Whitaker is Stewart’s official No. 2, but Cameron Artis-Payne is probably better coming in as the No. 3.
The Broncos on Offense
Here’s where this game gets interesting. Denver still has plenty of offensive weapons, especially at wideout with Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. What they might not have is a quarterback in Trevor Siemian. Yes, General Manager John Elway has said all the right things about his new starter, but that doesn’t mean the guy can play at a competitive NFL level against a Super Bowl caliber opponent. Siemian has a lot to prove and, frankly, I don’t think he’ll get more than a month to prove it.
The Panthers on Defense
Carolina’s defense was overshadowed by the Broncos in the Super Bowl, but they had a pretty tremendous run of their own. If the Panthers could have pulled of a win, Kony Ealy might have been the MVP instead of Von Miller. As it is, the Panthers are playing for a lot of pride in this game and don’t be surprised to see Siemian eat a lot of turf in the loving embrace of Ealy and Charles Johnson. If Carolina does have a weakness it might be on the back end with their defensive backs, but I’m not sure Siemian will have the time to exploit it.
The Broncos on Defense
Denver brings back the heart of the unit that trashed the entire AFC in the playoffs and the Panthers in the Super Bowl last year. Von Miller just signed a nice, new, fat contract and is eager to earn it on the field. They have two tremendous corners in Chris Harris and Aqib Talib and a solid interior linebacking corps as well. Where this defense is different is up front and that’s where the Panthers will do a lot of their damage.
The pick: The Super Bowl is going to feel like a lifetime away after this game. I see it going almost completley the opposite way thanks to what should be an ineffective Denver offense. The Panthers have more playmakers on offense and an entire offseason to get ready. That should be enough. Panthers 24, Broncos 13
