If you looked at UFC 194 as a whole, Conor McGregor versus Jose Aldo probably accounts for 90% of the event’s spotlight (with Conor taking up most of it, because that’s just who he is). It is the fight that most fans are looking forward to seeing. While there is nothing wrong with that, there are other great match ups on the card that deserve some recognition. We have a number one contender fight in the middleweight division, a grappling superfight, and a 145 lb bout between two of the scrappiest guys in the sport – these are fights that you do NOT want to miss!
Demian Maia (-140) vs. Gunnar Nelson (+120)
Featured on the UFC 194 main card is a match up between two of the welterweight division’s best grapplers – Demian Maia and Gunnar Nelson. This is a very intriguing match up because of the possibility of seeing Brazilian jiu-jitsu at the highest level, but don’t be surprised if it turns into a striking match. Often times exceptional ground fighters cancel each other out resulting in the fight being contested elsewhere. Wherever the fight takes place, one can expect a fantastic, technical chess match between two fighters on the verge of being among the elite at 170 lbs.
Demian Maia is not only one of the best grapplers at welterweight, but one of the best grapplers to have ever competed in the UFC; it’s easy to forget how influential Maia’s ground fighting skills were when he was a title challenger at middleweight. Now at welterweight, Maia’s submissions are not the only element to his arsenal; he can now overpower opponents with takedowns from the clinch, and suffocate them with top control. He may not have an imposing physique, but Maia’s grip and ability to move bodies makes him comparable in strength to many of the division’s strongest competitors. In the striking department, Maia has improved some since his early days in the UFC, but still has several flaws. Maia has a fair understanding of basic mechanics, but lacks the explosive footwork to give power to his punches. Instead, Maia uses low kicks and the occasional two-or-three-punch combination to close the distance for clinches or takedowns. On the defensive side of things, Maia plays cautious on the feet for the most part and only absorbs 1.79 strikes per minute.
Gunnar Nelson, teammate to main event representer McGregor, possesses many of the same skills as Maia, but is perhaps more evolved. Nelson may not have the credentials that Maia does in grappling, but he should be able to hold his own on the mat. The striking department heavily favors Gunnar, however. In his standout performance against Brandon Thatch, Nelson showed deceptive movement combined with technical, explosive punches and ability to close the distance; very similar to the karate-based style of Lyoto Machida. Nelson is overall a cautious fighter too, so this fight may not feature much volume from either fighter, but both of these contenders are expert strategists and tacticians. Nelson’s biggest weakness has been his striking defense with 4 strikes being absorbed per minute. Fortunately for him, striking with Maia will undoubtedly favor him.
Verdict: Despite being the slight underdog, it’s hard to bet against Gunnar Nelson. Maia can suffocate any opponent with his grappling and ground control, but Nelson has the well-rounded skill set and fight IQ to stay out of trouble. With that said, Nelson may not be as willing to open up on the feet knowing that one mistake can put him in a danger on the mat. Instead, look for Nelson to beat Maia to the punch while not over-committing, and overall fighting a safe fight. This bout will feature two intelligent tacticians looking to out-maneuver one another like a chess match, but a chess match that Nelson will win. He is too smart, too athletic, and too intelligent to be swept into Maia’s game.
Pick: Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision
