In Saturday’s main event – Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez – there will be a chance for history to be made. McGregor, the featherweight champion, will attempt to become the first two-weight UFC champion by claiming Alvarez’s lightweight belt. Of course, Eddie represents a difficult challenge, stylistically and otherwise. I will profile both fighters, discuss how they match up, and give my thoughts on what might occur during Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez. Get hyped!
Conor McGregor
Let’s start with the Irishman.
Broadly speaking, McGregor is 90% striking and 10% everything else. He’s at his best when he’s on his feet hunting his opponent down, but is equally dangerous on the retreat. He is equipped with a deadly arsenal of attacks combined with high-level understanding of timing, distance, and accuracy. In essence, McGregor is a powerful sniper that moves forward, backward, and brings intense volume.
Of course, the biggest knock against him is his wrestling skills. This was highlighted last year when opponent Chad Mendes took him four times. Mendes eventually met his demise at the end of the second round, but it wasn’t a good look for the Irishman. McGregor has apparently been training his wrestling and grappling diligently for UFC 205.
“The Celtic Cross”
The entirety of McGregor’s approach and style revolves around the power he possesses in his left hand – “The Celtic Cross” (coined by MMA analyst Robin Black). Whether he’s covering distance or throwing it as a counter, the left hand packs devastating knockout power. McGregor’s approach is easy to define – land the left hand as often as possible. Of course, the way he executes this involves much more sophistication.
However, it’s McGregor’s malleability that consistently allows him to get off with his left hand. Conor is fluid, and will find ways to land his left even against opponents who keep their right hand up. He’ll sneak it through the guard (like in the above gif) or mask it behind other punches (see below).
McGregor can also find spots on the head that are unprotected.
Kicks
McGregor’s hands alone are quite good, but he compliments them with a superb kicking game. He doesn’t possess much stopping power in his kicks, but he gets great utility out of them. They help maintain distance, back opponents up, set up the left hand, and keep his opponent distracted.
In the below gifs you can see McGregor throw a variety of kicks:
He has quite the dangerous striking arsenal, but what really makes it super effective is pressure. He backs his opponents up against the cage, corners them, and makes them panic. If they lash out to try and regain some space, McGregor will look to slip and counter. It’s just as much a mental tactic as it is physical.
Fighters who let McGregor dictate the pace, distance, and rhythm of the fight will succumb to an inevitable, violent fate.
An x-factor to McGregor is what fellow MMA analyst Robin Black coined as “Flim Flam.” This is essentially the way McGregor brings his personality and bravado into the cage via taunting and Irish swagger. It helps McGregor feel like the alpha male, and keeps his opponents distracted and emotional. Again, more of the mental battlefield at play here.
Grappling
Like I said, the majority of McGregor is his striking, but there some interesting qualities in his grappling. For one, McGregor possesses a 70% takedown defense rate. This isn’t too bad, but he has only faced one really solid wrestler (Chad Mendes); McGregor was taken down 4 times by him. Of course, McGregor also had a knee injury before the bout, so one can expect a healthy McGregor to have solid takedown defense.
The real struggle for McGregor is what he does on his back. Against Mendes, McGregor appeared passive; not wanting to waste energy getting back to his feet. Instead, McGregor threw elbows, and virtually waited for Mendes to make a mistake or the ref to stand them up.
Eddie Alvarez
The newly-crowned lightweight champion presents a formidable challenge for Conor McGregor. For one, Alvarez is one of the most experienced lightweights on the planet. He has fought all over the world, and has held titles in every organization he has fought in. It’s unlikely that he will have the same nerves and tension that previous McGregor opponents had. Furthermore, Alvarez is a sensational fighter with a very well-rounded skill set. He has solid boxing skills, great wrestling, and ridiculous durability.
Rather than breaking Alvarez down into striking and grappling like McGregor, I’m going to highlight his evolution as a fighter first. We’ll look at his striking and grappling later.
Evolution
Growing up in Philly, it’s expected that Alvarez has solid boxing, and he does. In fact, Alvarez spent about the first 5 years of his MMA career out-boxing opponents. He would get himself into crazy brawls where both men stood toe-to-toe. Alvarez possessed the quicker, tighter, more technical hands and thus held a big advantage. Alvarez’s durability also played a factor as he could withstand shots his opponents couldn’t.
It isn’t the prettiest form of fighting, but it paid off for him.
After this, he started to evolve and incorporate his underrated grappling skills. This showed itself around the time Alvarez began fighting in Bellator. All of sudden, Alvarez won 5 straight via submission; before he had no real submission victories. This was successful partly because opponents anticipated Alvarez’s boxing-heavy, slug-it-out approach. Instead, Alvarez was exploiting this, taking his opponents down, and submitting them.
The final evolution of Alvarez came when he entered the UFC. Even though he lost his UFC debut, he rebounded with two decision victories over top contenders. Both fights involved a heavy wrestling approach by Alvarez.
Now, Alvarez is a complete fighter equipped to fight at all ranges and positions. He still has the brawler instinct in him though which will come out if he sees his opponent is hurt. In the below gif, you see some sequences from Alvarez’s fight with Rafael dos Anjos, which is when he won the lightweight belt.
Key Concepts
Now let’s go over some key concepts behind Eddie Alvarez’s style that he goes to regularly. Even though he’s a complete MMA fighter who blends all facets together, he does have a few tendencies that define him.
The first concept is a technique called the dart. For Eddie, it’s a dart right hand which he uses to close distance. He explodes forward, leading with his right hand, switches stances, and angles off in the opposite direction. It’s a hit-and-run technique that Alvarez goes to regularly, but unfortunately I can’t find a gif of it.
Another technique Alvarez likes to throw is the double right hand. We saw him use this brilliantly against Anthony Pettis. Alvarez starts it just like the dart, leading with the rear hand, but then he switches stances, keeps driving forward, and throws the right hand again. This is perfect against mobile opponents who try to circle away. The double right hand not only disrupts tempo, but it allows Alvarez to close distance and stay in his opponent’s face. Alvarez can follow this up well with a takedown attempt if he chooses.
Lastly, I want to show a double leg entry by Alvarez. The important concept here is that he’s he’s happy hanging onto the hips, controlling his opponent, and eating up the clock. This is the grinding approach that Alvarez is expected to bring into this fight. It’s all about the win.
Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez – The Match Up
So now that I’ve highlighted both parties in our main event – Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez – let’s briefly discuss how they match up with one another.
On the feet
I expect McGregor to be in total control of distance. This is due to the reason that McGregor is a master distance manipulator. We have yet to see McGregor really be uncomfortable with a fight on the feet. Even in the first Diaz fight, McGregor was dominating most of the exchanges until he gassed and got caught. Furthermore, Alvarez seems pretty comfortable not controlling the center. Against Rafael dos Anjos, Alvarez let himself get backed up.
The left hand
There’s also nothing that leads me to believe that Alvarez can avoid McGregor’s left hand. Nate Diaz had a couple things going for him: he’s tall and long, a southpaw, has a good shoulder roll, and is insanely durable. We know Alvarez is durable, but technically-speaking there’s nothing Alvarez has previously shown that leads me to believe he can avoid the left hand. Afterall, RDA was able to not only back him up, but also land some solid left hands.
So with that, I’m expecting McGregor to back Alvarez up, and control the center of the Octagon like he does against most opponents. I’m also expecing McGregor to be able to land his left hand fairly often. Now, the topic of Alvarez’s explosive striking attempts and takedowns comes up.
Takedowns
One stat I want to bring up is that Alvarez only has a 29% success rate with his takedown attempts.
He typically uses the attempt to control his opponent against the cage rather than put them on their back. Based on what we’ve seen (training footage and the last Diaz fight), McGregor is getting very comfortable with his back against the cage. He showed some great moments battling the bigger Nate Diaz in the clinch, so I don’t think Alvarez will be able to have much success with this tactic. Obviously, Diaz doesn’t have the wrestling expertise, but he does have the size and leverage.
If Alvarez can complete a takedown and put McGregor on his back, it’s a different story. We know Alvarez is physically strong, has a good top game, and will look for submissions. McGregor might have developed some solid defense since the Chad Mendes performance, but being on his back means not being on his feet which is where he’s best. McGregor can’t afford to spend too much time there as he needs to conserve his energy too. If Alvarez can’t complete a takedown, then he needs to back out and try again rather than try to grind. If he does complete it, then I think he’ll do quite well with it.
Exchanges
Another thing McGregor needs to watch out for is Alvarez’s boxing. While I know McGregor will be able to control distance and land his left hand, there’s nothing stopping Alvarez from landing his own shots. We know McGregor is hittable and we know Alvarez has some tricky combinations (the dart right and double right in particular). This leads me to believe both McGregor and Alvarez are going to be landing shots on each other. However – this once again favors McGregor.
Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez – The Verdict
Conor McGregor via 2nd round TKO
