Patrick Mahomes fever has swept through the league and if you haven’t caught it, it’s probably because he just handed you a loss playing against your fantasy team. That, or you root for the Los Angeles Chargers or Pittsburgh Steelers. Either way, Mahomes has been phenomenal, but just how good can we expect (and bet on) him to be in 2018?
Here are the current Patrick Mahomes odds for this Sunday and the season, as well as a Week 3 touchdown passes prop for your enjoyment from the fine folks at BetDSI.
Total touchdown passes in Week 3 of 2018 reg. season
Over 60.5 (+110)
Under 60.5 (-140)
Total touchdown passes by Patrick Mahomes during 2018 reg. season
Over 35.5 (-115)
Under 35.5 (-115)
Will Patrick Mahomes break single-season TD passes record of 55?
Yes +340
No -535
Let’s look at the league prop first. Is there any way the entire NFL will pass for 61 or more touchdowns in Week 3? Last week, the league went touchdown pass nuts with four different quarterbacks passing for four touchdowns in a game and that’s not even counting Mahomes’ six touchdown performance. Still, even with that, the grand touchdown total for Week 2 was 63.
Week 1 had 49 total touchdowns, and that was with Mahomes and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick both throwing four apiece. The number for Week 3 will probably settle somewhere between, so as exciting as it would be to see another 61-plus touchdown week, I don’t think it will happen. The under is the way to go.
Now, what about Mahomes?
Well, there’s plenty to be excited about and there’s no reason to think he couldn’t throw three or more touchdowns this week against the San Francisco 49ers at home. Where the trouble could come for Mahomes is his schedule is stacked with elite secondaries and pass rushers, especially when he faces the Denver Broncos (twice), Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Rams.
Andy Reid, the world's worst hype man, was asked about Patrick Mahomes: "He had a couple good plays."
— Sam Mellinger (@mellinger) September 16, 2018
The Chiefs (2-0) aren’t going undefeated, even if they do look like they could run away with the AFC West. Will Mahomes throw 36 or more touchdown passes this season? I say that’s a pretty safe bet considering he only has 26 more to go and 14 more games to do it.
What you want to look at are the potential shootouts on Kansas City’s schedule and I see plenty, starting with Sunday’s game against Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. On October 14 they have a prime time duel with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, then follow that up with a home game against the suddenly hot Cincinnati Bengals. Add in another game with the Chargers and those four games could add another 12-plus touchdown passes right there.
Patrick Mahomes 16 game projection: 4,656 yards, 80 TD's, 0 INT's.
Seems feasible.
— Craig Stout (@barleyhop) September 16, 2018
What about Peyton Manning’s NFL record of 55 touchdowns?
While 36 touchdown passes is absolutely on the table for Mahomes, I think Manning’s single-season record, set in 2013, is probably safe. Denver’s defense that season was a far cry from the shutdown unit Wade Philips would bring to the table two years later. That defense was run by Jack Del Rio and was ranked No. 22 in the league.
Every game was a shootout and only four times out of 16 games did the Broncos hold an opponent under 20 points. While KC’s defense has surrendered a ton of points so far this season, there’s no reason to expect that to continue. Plus, Mahomes has a solid running back in Kareem Hunt that will eat up a lot of those scores on the ground. The under is the way to go.
